So I need to ask Slovakia not to hold elections during my winter teaching term. It is highly inconvenient. Research and teaching have taken precedence over blog updates recently, but now it’s election day and I’m looking forward to doing some live-blogging this election night. I’ll keep updating as the time permits.
First, my own highly unscientific guesses about the results:
Turnout: |
54% |
Party |
Votes |
Seats |
Smer |
40.5 |
78 |
OL |
4.5 |
0 |
SDKU |
6.5 |
12 |
KDH |
12 |
23 |
Most |
8.5 |
16 |
SaS |
6 |
11 |
SNS |
5 |
10 |
SMK |
4.5 |
0 |
99% |
4 |
0 |
Next, a brief guide to exit polls. Here’s what happened last time:
Type |
Source |
Average raw difference |
Average percent difference |
Final Monthly Polls |
Polis |
1.5 |
12% |
MVK |
1.8 |
22% |
FOCUS |
1.9 |
19% |
ASA |
2.0 |
21% |
AVVM |
2.2 |
22% |
Presov |
2.9 |
30% |
Median |
3.2 |
41% |
Exit Polls |
MVK |
1.4 |
12% |
FOCUS |
1.7 |
16%
|
In other words, even the exit polls were off by an average of 1.4% or 12% per party. I’ll try to post the specifics about the exit polls from MVK and FOCUS in a short while
Finally, a few brief words about how to read the very early results:
Party |
Expectation at certain levels of counting |
|
Very early (200-500) |
Early (1000 polling stations) |
Smer |
May be much too high |
Will drop by about 5%-7% |
SDKU |
May be very low |
May rise by 10-15% |
KDH |
May be a bit high |
Should stay approximately the same (2010) or fall slightly (2006) |
Most-Hid |
May be very low |
should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 Most) |
SNS |
No clear pattern |
Should stay the same (2006) or rise slightly by a about 5-6% (2010) |
SMK |
May be very low |
should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 SMK) |
SaS |
May be very low |
Should rise by about 5-7% (2010) |
OLaNO |
No clear pattern |
May rise slightly? 2-5% (2010 based on SaS) |
99% |
No Clear pattern |
SF rose in 2006, SDL fell in 2010, SaS rose in 2010 |