First guess

For the last 2 elections I’ve been tracking results as they come in, every 10 minutes.  Based on what we saw last time (and the time before) I have a very rough model for judging results and how they relate to exit polls.  After 250 they are too rough to make much of a conclusion.  By the time we get to about 1000 polling stations, it should be much better.  Last time we reached 1000 around 1:30 after the election, about 20 minutes from now.

  Based on 2010 after 250 After 250 Consistent with exit polls?
Smer May be much too high 53.52 Yes. Final in the 40s
SDKU May be very low 4.83 Yes. Final considerably higher
KDH May be a bit high 8.75 Yes, Final somewhat higher
Most-Hid May be very low 4.46 Yes, Final considerably higher
SNS No clear pattern 5.1 No way to tell
SMK May be very low 3.64 Consistent with either in or out
SaS May be very low 3.13 Yes, Final somewhat higher
OLaNO No clear pattern 5.43 No way to tell

6 thoughts on First guess

  1. you are making the best slovak elections coverage and analysis (including all slovak medias)

  2. I don’t agree. It is not important how many stations have results, but which stations they are. For example right now only 3 of 396 Bratislava stations are counted, similar for all major cities. And Bratislava is well-known for its right orientation, so this will bring Smer down.
    But I don’t know why counting in big cities takes longer.

    • True, but results tend to come in from similar kinds of polling stations in similar patterns. 2006 and 2010 were almost identical. We shall see, but this is my rough guess…

  3. “I have a very rough model for judging results”
    I only silently hope you are not fitting straight lines to those exponential curves (shown in your more recent posts) and using these to extrapolate :-D

    • No straight lines. Those are based on the results from the previous elections, as results come in…

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