Smer then and now

Keeping up with the Smer track, the party is trending almost exactly as it did in 2010 with one exception: it is 10% above its trending last year.  It does of course make a difference about which polling places return results when, but certain kinds of polling places tend to return results at particular times and so the pattern tends to follow.  Here is 2012 (small, dark circles) versus 2010+10% (light circles) and 2006 +18% (plusses).

Elsewhere, I have to say that FOCUS’s revised predictions look pretty good.  But more on that in a moment.  Trending is downward for SNS and for SMK.  This would mean a /big/ group of votes below the threshold and would sharply magnify the Smer majority…

2 thoughts on Smer then and now

  1. Shouldn’t the x-axis rather be percentage of votes processed instead of time?

  2. Have you considered decrease of hzds in 2010? Smer took rest of HZDS voters.

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