Sceniarios, but not much difference

I like to run various scenarios, just in case.  Using the most recent FOCUS numbers, I offer a few different possibilities, though as the numbers come in, those are looking less and less likely.  The upshot:  if the polling numbers are right, the only way there is not a significant majority in the hands of Smer is if all of the borderline parties don’t get in.  That means SNS, MK and SaS.  SaS looks to have a good shot, so it’s really up to SMK and SNS but as the past post shows, time is running out for those two.  One party government (de facto if not de jure) here we come.

As predicted by FOCUS As predicted minus SaS As predicted plus MK As predicted plus MK and SNS
Smer 43.70 43.70 43.70 43.70
KDH 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
OL 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50
Most-Hid 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
SDKU 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
SaS 5.90 4.99 5.90 5.90
SNS 5.01
MK 5.01 5.01
Seats Current minus SaS plus MK plus MK&SNS
Smer 82 88 77 73
KDH 16 18 16 15
OL 16 17 15 14
Most-Hid 13 14 12 11
SDKU 12 13 11 11
SaS 11 0 10 10
SNS 0 0 0 8
MK 0 0 9 8
Sum 150 150 150 150

Smer, SNS and Hungarians trending

At this point I’d put more faith in the recent FOCUS adjustment ( than my own, which are not based on regional patterns (that’s a project for some future effort–I don’t know what the FOCUS numbers are based on but they look OK), but for those who are interested here’s the trending for the parties on which I have a good read:

Smer, until the most recent numbers was running exactly at its 2010 rate plus 10%.  The most recent pushed the bottom of that window a bit.  Don’t know if this is a blip or a sign of a trend.  Still, hard to see Smer under 43 for the night

Thought I’d check out SNS as well.  Here’s the party’s election night trending.  The party’s election night profile is remarkably flat in both 2006 and 2010.  In 2006 it dropped then recovered.  In 2010 it kept dropping, to within 2000 voters of the threshold.  In 2012 the slide is even more pronounced.  Even a recovery in big cities that report late (as happened in 2006) might not be enough.  Not yet dead, but slipping further and further away.

And finally the Hungarian parties.  Here the pattern is less pronounced for individual parties so I thought I would combine SMK and Most Hid to see what I get.  Even here the pattern isn’t as clear except tha tHungarian parties tend to rise as the night progresses.  Following current patterns, the two should together end up with between 11.75 and 12.75.  Since SMK has been getting just about .4 of the total of the two parties, this raises the barest hope that if the two parties do end up following the 2010 pattern, it could get about 5.1% of the vote.  But as the big cities report in, SMK’s share of the overall is dropping slightly, suggesting that it is Most-Hid that will be the bigger beneficiary of further growth and that it will be very difficult for SMK to make it.  They look to end up just barely outside parliament.

Smer then and now

Keeping up with the Smer track, the party is trending almost exactly as it did in 2010 with one exception: it is 10% above its trending last year.  It does of course make a difference about which polling places return results when, but certain kinds of polling places tend to return results at particular times and so the pattern tends to follow.  Here is 2012 (small, dark circles) versus 2010+10% (light circles) and 2006 +18% (plusses).

Elsewhere, I have to say that FOCUS’s revised predictions look pretty good.  But more on that in a moment.  Trending is downward for SNS and for SMK.  This would mean a /big/ group of votes below the threshold and would sharply magnify the Smer majority…

Better guesses: after 1000 polling stations

Usually once we get to 1000 polling stations, we can make a better guess.  Based on the experience of 2010 (and 2006), I’ve got a rough model of how it changes over time.  Here is that model applied to what we have in now.  I’m off to calculate the seat consequences of that, but it looks like 78-79 seats for Smer if all other parties get into parliament (including SNS and SMK) and more if one or more does not..

I think, by the way, that the estimate for SaS is too low.  For that party we just don’t have as much of a track record.  Same for OLANO.

Party After 1000 polling stations 2012 Prediction based on 1000 in 2010 Range
Smer 49.73 Will drop by about 5%-7% 45.8 - 47.7
SDKU 4.69 May rise by 10-15% 5.2 - 5.4
KDH 9.02 Should stay approximately the same (2010) or fall slightly (2006) 8.6 - 9.5
Most-Hid 5.45 should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 Most) 6.0 - 7.1
SNS 4.93 Should stay the same (2006) or rise slightly by a about 5-6% (2010) 4.9 - 5.2
SMK 4.24 should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 SMK) 4.7 - 5.5
SaS 3.97 Should rise by about 5-7% (2010) 4.0 - 4.4
OLaNO 7.1 May rise slightly? 2-5% (2010 based on SaS) 7.1 - 7.5

Early guesses: Smer much higher than last time

Really interesting news here:  I’ve been tracking Smer and it is consistently producing results 10% above the equivalent numbers last time, suggesting a result more like 43% or 44% than the exit polls at 37%-39%.

Here’s the chart from last election against this time. It shows how the results change over time, every 10 minutes as results come in.  This, along with the possible adjustments to the exit polls point to a victory for Smer much bigger than exit polls would indicate.

First guess

For the last 2 elections I’ve been tracking results as they come in, every 10 minutes.  Based on what we saw last time (and the time before) I have a very rough model for judging results and how they relate to exit polls.  After 250 they are too rough to make much of a conclusion.  By the time we get to about 1000 polling stations, it should be much better.  Last time we reached 1000 around 1:30 after the election, about 20 minutes from now.

  Based on 2010 after 250 After 250 Consistent with exit polls?
Smer May be much too high 53.52 Yes. Final in the 40s
SDKU May be very low 4.83 Yes. Final considerably higher
KDH May be a bit high 8.75 Yes, Final somewhat higher
Most-Hid May be very low 4.46 Yes, Final considerably higher
SNS No clear pattern 5.1 No way to tell
SMK May be very low 3.64 Consistent with either in or out
SaS May be very low 3.13 Yes, Final somewhat higher
OLaNO No clear pattern 5.43 No way to tell

Voting for small parties

One interesting thing to follow in this election:  the number of votes for parties that do not make the 5% threshold.  In 2010 it was 15.94%.

If FOCUS is right, then this time it will be 20.2%.  If MVK is right, it will be 19.0% 

Both represent a significant increase over last time.  We haven’t seen the exit polls for small parties but it suggests a pretty large number of votes for parties without much chance…

Exit poll adjustments

I’m having a hard time listening to talking heads even on TA3 talking about exit poll numbers as if they are real, when they are often quite far off.  There’s no attempt to say, hey, these polls were off systematically last time.  Instead, there’s blather by otherwise smart people (see the bottom of this post).  What if we adjusted current results by what happened last time?

First MVK:


MVK Exit poll Seats Adjustment based on last time   adj. seats
smer 37.3 69 6.79 44.09 83
kdh 10.8 20 -1.38 9.42 18
olano 7.6 14 ? 7.6 14
sdku 7.5 14 -0.38 7.12 13
Most-Hid 6.8 13 -0.08 6.72 12
SaS 5.9 11 -0.26 5.64 10
SMK 5.1 9 -1.47 3.63 0


FOCUS Exit Poll Seats adjustment adj. share adj. seats
smer 39.6 75 5.1 44.7 80
kdh 9.9 19 -0.6 9.3 17
olano 8.8 16   8.8 16
sdku 8.1 15 -2.7 5.4 9
Most-Hid 6.3 12 1.4 7.7 14
SaS 7.1 13 0.5 7.6 14
SMK 4.4 0 -2.0 2.4 0
SNS 4.1 0 -1.0 3.1 0

So what to read from this?  Better chance than might be apparent how for a one-party Smer government (or a Smer-coalition with an expendible partner).

Recaption: "All election-night political commentary"


MVK Exit poll Seats Adjustment based on last time   adj. seats
smer 37.3 69 6.79 44.09 83
kdh 10.8 20 -1.38 9.42 18
olano 7.6 14 ? 7.6 14
sdku 7.5 14 -0.38 7.12 13
Most-Hid 6.8 13 -0.08 6.72 12
SaS 5.9 11 -0.26 5.64 10
SMK 5.1 9 -1.47 3.63 0

Next Exit Poll


New results show similar rank ordering, flipping SaS and Most-Hid:

Party % Seats Party % Seats
Smer 39.6 75 Smer 37.3 69
KDH 9.9 19 KDH 10.8 20
OL 8.8 16 OL 7.6 14
SDKU 8.1 15 SDKU 7.5 14
SaS 7.1 13 SaS 5.9 11
Most-Hid 6.3 12 Most-Hid 6.8 13
MK 4.4 0 MK 5.1 9
SNS 4.1 0 SNS    

Neither gives Smer a majority of deputies, but (as the next post will show) both polls last time underestimated Smer and overestimated others…

Exit polls

OK, exit polls out from MVK:

party % seats
smer 37.3 69
kdh 10.8 20
olano 7.6 14
sdku 7.5 14
Most-Hid 6.8 13
SaS 5.9 11
SMK 5.1 9

Here’s what happened with last election’s exit polls.  Not great predictive capability:

Prediction was   points Prediction was points
Smer too low by 5.1 too low by 6.8
KDH too high by 0.6 too high by 1.4
Most-Hid too low by 1.4 too high by 0.1
SDKU too high by 2.7 too high by 0.4
SNS too high by 1.0 too high by 0.6
MK too high by 2.0 too high by 1.5
SaS too low by 0.5 too high by 0.3

If this holds, it would suggest that SMK may not survive the night, but we shall see.  Does suggest that since last time SNS was overestimated, and it’s not showing up, that it may not make it this time.  Again, shall see.

Smer on TA3 prepared statement immediately played the ‘zlepenec’ card (and just did it again).  Clear left or fragmented right…