Slovakia Election 2016 Liveblogging

Trying to do a little bit of live blogging tonight (and also commenting here, albeit in Slovak,

Exit polls from FOCUS are surprising at a minimum.  I’m having a hard time knowing what to do with them.  I’ve got some methods for adjusting exit poll results but these don’t even look like the polls so I don’t know what to do with them.

We’ll now have a better idea once the first 200 or so precincts submit votes.  Until then, we’re playing the same game as sports commentators, only for politics:

2 thoughts on Slovakia Election 2016 Liveblogging

  1. 1:30am, 750 precincts reporting… and Markiza’s ticker is still reporting their exit poll results! Who needs real results when you’ve got an exit poll?

    Kevin: how did Boris Kollar win over 5%, even assuming all his (ex/current)wives+children voted for him?? His only marketing masterstroke has been to wear a scarf…

    Interesting to note that Kotleba is the only party with zero reporters covering them. Which just feeds their narrative of victimhood.

    Two predictions (for what their worth – prob. not much :)
    1. (more likely) It’s such a mess that we’ll be doing this all over again in a few months;
    2. (wild-card) Smer can form a government with SaS and/or OLaNO and/or Boris. The price: Fico goes.

  2. My understanding from STV though is that Kotleba didn’t provide a “Central” that was open to journalists and made it clear they weren’t going to provide a comment till morning. STV still sent someone to Banska Bystrica to stand in the street and say that there was no Central.

    I’m also surprised by the results for Kollar. I though even the name of his party was a sick joke. He may end up somewhat similar to Matovic – to the public a wildcard but in practice a businessman with a preference for good government and stability.

    The think I really want to know is how is Kotleba going to vote in confidence motions. If he’s going to abstain then the maths of forming a government gets a lot easier.

    My favourite story of the night is Sulik cutting himself when attempting to open a bottle of champagne with a sabre. That’s almost Churchillian.

    As an SaS voter (not in national elections as I don’t have citizenship) I’m just stunned by these results. I thought all the (IMHO) fake opposition parties like SKOK and Sanca would split the vote and SaS would be around the 5% mark.

    SDKU’s vote is lower than expected – the pre-election polls seem to have been completely wrong – hard to see how they could consistently 5x the real support for SDKU unless the pollsters were just guessing and not actually asking anyone. The polling differences for KDH and for LSNS seem to suggest they were massively overcounting older voters compared to younger voters (LSNS was number one party in the 18-21 age group).

    With the exception of Kollar it seems that parties with an ideological unique selling point did well and those without one tanked completely. SDKU is the best example of this, it doesn’t differentiate itself sufficiently to attract anyone. You could also add all the new “cute name, lots of money and lots of talk about corruption and bad politicians” parties to that too.

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