OK, exit polls out from MVK:
party | % | seats |
smer | 37.3 | 69 |
kdh | 10.8 | 20 |
olano | 7.6 | 14 |
sdku | 7.5 | 14 |
Most-Hid | 6.8 | 13 |
SaS | 5.9 | 11 |
SMK | 5.1 | 9 |
Here’s what happened with last election’s exit polls. Not great predictive capability:
FOCUS | MVK | |||||
Prediction was | points | Prediction was | points | |||
Smer | too low | by | 5.1 | too low | by | 6.8 |
KDH | too high | by | 0.6 | too high | by | 1.4 |
Most-Hid | too low | by | 1.4 | too high | by | 0.1 |
SDKU | too high | by | 2.7 | too high | by | 0.4 |
SNS | too high | by | 1.0 | too high | by | 0.6 |
MK | too high | by | 2.0 | too high | by | 1.5 |
SaS | too low | by | 0.5 | too high | by | 0.3 |
If this holds, it would suggest that SMK may not survive the night, but we shall see. Does suggest that since last time SNS was overestimated, and it’s not showing up, that it may not make it this time. Again, shall see.
Smer on TA3 prepared statement immediately played the ‘zlepenec’ card (and just did it again). Clear left or fragmented right…