December 2008: Poll Averages and Comparisons

Overall Monthly Report:
Record highs for Smer and disagreements elsewhere

For the first time I can remember we have both FOCUS and UVVM numbers by mid-month (FOCUS getting there first this month) and so we can do a quick analysis already.  If time allows over the holiday season, I may try to do a few more year-on-year comparisons.

This graph averaging the last 24 months of polling results from multiple sources shows a number for Smer that is higher than any previous average.  Although the party is not at is record high for either UVVM or FOCUS, this is the first time it has been at a near-record high for both in the same month.  SDKU is at a correspondingly record low, though since these parties do not share the same voter pool and any correspondence is likely a coincidence.  (Unlike Smer, furthermore, SDKU is not seeing numbers that are unprecedented for the party: what is here a record low would have been for the party a near record high between 2003 and 2006, though then the party was in the tougher position of bearing responsibility for government actions)

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These numbers do not give the party a majority of seats but they do bring it within 3 of a majority, again the highest numbers recorded for a poll average.  The opposition, by this calculation, would have a mere 46, less than 2/3 of Smer alone.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

It is worthwhile to note the degree to which these numbers reflect disagreement among pollsters, however.  In the first place, the “Smer-gap” has re-emerged.  Smer numbers for FOCUS have recently notched upward, but now so have its numbers for UVVM, so we are back at a 6 point difference which is smaller than before only in the sense that it must be measured against a higher baseline for Smer so that it accounts for a smaller overall percentage.
Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For SDKU, however, the gap has now disappeared and both polls show the party at the exact same level, just above 11%, though not quite in need of the shift in axis that SNS suffered in last month’s poll (from the 10%-20% range to 5-15%).  Still, the news for SDKU is not good.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS shows the return of divergence after long months of near-agreement. FOCUS shows a continuing slide while UVVM shows a sharp rise.  Is politicization of conflicts with Hungary working for SNS?  It depends on your pollster.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For MK it does not depend on the pollster–we are back to agreement after a month of disagreement–but MK numbers have been so erratic (given its base) that it is hard to know what to think.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

As with SNS, it was either a good month or a bad month for HZDS depending on your pollster.  The party’s numbers from FOCUS this month exceed its numbers from UVVM, something that has happened only 4 times in the 30 months since the previous election.  Regardless of relative position, the two are quite close suggesting that the party’s polling level lies around 8% at present, not good for a party that regularly commanded twice that level four years ago, but not in danger of extinction.  Long term trends show the party falling below 5% but not in the next year.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows the emergence of a gap that had, for a while, disappeared.  Through most of 2007 the party polled better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again, with a nearly 4 percentage point gap, one of the highest in percentage terms for any party.  Both, however, show a slight rise for the party from November to December.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows little change: the party usually polls better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

If all we had were FOCUS numbers, it would be easy to accuse this post of burying the lead: “SF nears threshold of electability.”  That may be true, especially as dissatisfaction with SDKU appears to grow, but here we find it’s only true of one poll:  The party scores 4.5% with FOCUS but remains mired at 1% with UVVM.  There is a story here but it is hard to know which way it is going.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Other parties remain low.  The November bump for HZD has receded in December and ANO is at at near-record lows with both FOCUS and UVVM for the party’s lowest-ever result in poll averages (0.2%).  Its decline in the FOCUS poll may help to explain some of the rise for SF which is its alternative on the non-parliamentary “right.”  The category of “Other” party is also extremely low, suggesting that respondents do not spontaneously offer the Green Party, the Conservative Democrats or Liga-OLS.  Of course this depends on the nature of the questioning: MVK appears to include the Green Party on its list and regularly receives percentages of about 2% for that party.  The same might be true of KDS or Liga if their names were included.

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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December 2008 UVVM: The High Plateau

UVVM Monthly Report

This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows Smer back up to a near majority in preferences and with a majority of parliamentary seats while the opposition fades back toward the 30% mark it reached in July and previously in January of 2007.  With the exception of Smer’s rise, however, these numbers are not reflected in this month’s FOCUS poll (which for the first time in my memory beat UVVM to the punch) and which I will discuss in the next post.  This month the FOCUS and UVVM data are at odds in many areas, with one of the highest levels of disagreement between the two (excluding Smer) in the past 18 months, but more on that later.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM minus Smer shows a reversal in the positions of SDKU and SNS, suggesting that the polarization on Hungary-related issues may be working (FOCUS does not show quite the same trend, but again more on that later).  HZDS continues a minor slide with its second lowest score ever in a UVVM poll (though in FOCUS the party holds its own this month).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Adding these up, the strong month for Smer and SNS minus a slight decline in HZDS gives the coalition a near-record high, just shy of 7 out 0f every 10 voters in Slovakia expressing a preference.  The mirror image non-coalition parties drop to 3 in 10.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

The same basic trends apply to blocs.  The rise for SNS counters the drop for HZDS for stability in the “Slovak National” bloc while the drop in SDKU hurts the “Right.”UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And a few percentage points here or there makes a huge difference in the nature Slovakia’s potential future government: were these election results, Smer would need no other partners, a development that could significantly reshape the nature of Slovakia’s politics.UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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Poll Comparisons: August-November 2008

August-November 2008 Poll Comparisions

Trends and comparisons monthly report

Although the overall figures for the last four months show little change, there have been some curious shifts in the polling numbers of various polling firms.  A graph of recent polling results for Smer from multiple sources shows in particular a sharp increase among Smer supporters on FOCUS polls, especially in October, when FOCUS and UVVM produced the same result.  (For context, the last time that Smer numbers were higher in FOCUS polls than in UVVM polls was April 2006, and since the June 2006 elections Smer’s numbers from UVVM have exceed its numbers from FOCUS by an average of 6 percentage points.  Smer’s preferences were not higher in MVK polls, however, and the party’s record highs in FOCUS polls were counteracted by record lows in MVK, especially in November.  (A side note: because UVVM and FOCUS produced identical results for Smer in October, the overlapping of their + and x symbols misleadingly produces a near-circle that resembles the indicator used here for MVK).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for SDKU shows a reorientation of polling numbers but a stable aggregate.  Numbers for UVVM dropped sharply between October and November but rose sharply for MVK.  They stayed the same for FOCUS and the overall result is an average identical to the previous month.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS for the entire season shows tight clustering around the mean, with no more than 1 percentage point difference between any party and the mean.  That mean appears to have settled between 10-11% in the last three months and it is intriguing that this has happened despite an escallation in tensions between Slovakia and Hungary and heightened rhetoric and visibility for Slota.  December’s UVVM numbers may help figure out if there is any delayed effect but if not, it bodes ill for SNS which should be seeing some boost from the conflict.  A side note, I found it necessary this month to shift the range of the graph for SNS from a 10%-20% scale (like SDKU) to a 5%-15% scale (like SMK, HZDS and KDH).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for MK again show unexpected volatility for what should be a stable population.  FOCUS numbers (hidden under the MVK circle) rebounded from near record lows in the October poll to something closer to the recent FOCUS averages for MK.  The inclusion in November of numbers from MVK (which tends to produce higher numbers for MK than other firms) brought the party’s average back up above 9% but I now have little doubt that MK’s numbers have begun to trail the party’s demographic base in a way they have not done in the past.  Whether this means they will poll lower in elections is an open question.  It will also be interesting to see if December numbers show the conflict between Slovakia and Hungary producing higher MK numbers.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for HZDS shows more stability than for other parties.  The relative positions of pollsters remains unchanged and the party’s average has not changed by 0.5% percentage points from month to month.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows a bit more volatility than has been the recent norm, with a sharp drop by UVVM countered by a sharp rise by FOCUS.  MVK hugs the mean for this party, as it has often done.  The KDH-splinter party KDS registered for the first time above random noise on MVK’s September survey (though at a mere 0.8%), but the (as usual) haphazard reporting of results by major Slovak dailies does give any information about that party’s performance in November.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows stability.  Good MVK numbers bring the party up near 3% for the first time in half a year but little else seems to have changed.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SF shows bigger changes.  After October’s consensus at the 2% mark, FOCUS now shows the party at 3% while the UVVM numbers are back at 1%.  This is always difficult to gauge since the party’s total support is below the margin of error, even assuming no sampling problems.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Finally, while I did not prepare the graphs, HZD is at a post election high of 1.9, perhaps because of former party chair Gasparovic’s presidential election bid (the party saw a significant but fleeting gain during Gasparovic’s last effort) while ANO hovers on the threshold of non-existence with another 0.5%.

November 2008: Monthly Poll Averages

November 2008 Poll Averages

Overall Monthly Report: Continuity continued

How many ways to write the same story.  While there are some interesting variations among polls (to be covered in the next post) the overall story of Slovakia’s party support remains astoundingly consistent.  This month takes the edge off of some extremes in last month, most notably last month’s peak performance by Smer (the result of a major rise in its FOCUS numbers which this month have receded somewhat, though they remain higher than before) and valley numbers for SMK (also thanks to unusual FOCUS numbers).  This simply puts every party back at their overall recent averages:

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This long-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows a slight drop in the coalitions performance because (unlike in October) there was no Smer increase to balance weakness in SNS and HZDS:

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia
The long-term graph of poll results for (loosely defined) party “blocs” parties shows very little change over time.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +party+blocs+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And as always (of late), the month’s distribution of parliamentary seats shows a near majority by Smer.  If the election were held today, it would have its choice of a single partner.Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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New Parties, Again: Liga-Civic Liberal Party

LIGA-OLSDissatisfaction with Slovakia’s current roster of pro-market, cultural liberal parties has produced yet another entrant: Liga-Civic Liberal Party: http://www.liga-ols.sk.  Liga-OLS enters an crowded field, one already occupied by SDKU as well as the smaller, non-parliamentary Alliance of the New Citizen (ANO) and Slobodne Forum (SF).    

Liga’s proto-platform places it squarely in the same political space as those parties but as with KDS in the pro-market, cultural consevative quadrant, it is not entirely clear how Liga will manage to differentiate itself and draw voters from existing parties.  Pravda (anticipating this party’s creation) dealt with this question earlier this year in a brief article (here in Slovak, here in mediocre Google English translation.  Unlike KDS, Liga at least began its public life with a logo and a website, but it will take a considerable effort and probably some good luck for the party to become prominent enough to siphon off more dissatisfied SDKU voters, especially while ANO and SF are trying to do the same thing.  The Slovak socio-economic left was just as crowded by small parties around 2002 and has since seen a dramatic consolidation, but it had the advantage of “a Fico” and of somewhat less concern with cultural issues (which seem to have an asymmetrical impact, dividing the socioeconomic right more than the socioeconomic left).

More on this as we find out more.   October and November polling updates coming soon.

Astrid, Luka and Me

I’ve used up another 15 seconds of fame, this time in the Monday, September 29, Vitebski Kurier:

Vitebsk Election News Report

Translation:

Did expectations come true?..

Our attempt to have a conversation with one of the long-time observers of OSCE, coordinator Gary Ouellet from Canada were not successful. He providently refused by phone or other means to make any evaluations or comments on organization or process of the elections. His interpreter politely advised us to address all the questions to the headquarters of OSCE in Minsk. Nor did we manage to meet any other observers at polling stations to ask for their impressions. Nevertheless we were lucky to have a brief conversation with short-time observers Astrid Ganterer and Kevin Deegan-Krause (see photo) before the meeting of the District Election Commission of Vitebsk’s DEC #19 in the regional state administration building. It is their first time in Belarus, and they saw some parts of Vitebsk and Minsk. The representatives of OSCE mission persistently avoided all the questions connected to the elections. They kept silence, not revealing if their expectations came true or not. One could see either exhaustion or disappointment in their faces. Still, our foreign guests promised to answer all questions at the press-conference in Minsk…” (Thanks to our translator and several friends for clarifying the Russian).

Actually I am not allowed to clarify what emotion was on my face that day, but if it was reflective of the faces of those who reported for the OSCE in Minsk that day,  then “disappointment” would seem to be an appropriate choice (see http://www.osce.org/minsk/).

P.S. Search the picture above closely for the Hidden Lukashenka. If you enjoy that, you might want to try this Hidden Picture.

P.P.S. More election observation pictures (taken by others) online at:

Conservative Democrats of Slovakia

I saw the logo of the Conservative Democrats of Slovakia (KDS) for the first time today (apparently I live a sheltered life; or maybe it’s the party).

KDS
My first thought was that it was a surprisingly attractive and iconic design for a party that seemed to take so long to get its act together.  My second, and rather less charitable thought was that it is less than ideal for a party with less than 1% support in the polls to choose the asterisk as its symbol.  Or perhaps this, too, is just a clever way to sneak into the public opinion polls:

Smer, 44%
SDKU, 13%
…
Other*

My third thought related to the design.  Am I mistaken in thinking that this is merely the existing KDH (Christian Democratic Movement) logo
KDH logo
With an X through it?
You decide:
KDH and KDS Logos