Election Day: Return Trends

Sme’s retransmission of the election numbers as they appear offers an interesting opportunity to collect and process potentially useless data.  I’ve been downloading the results at roughly 15-20 minute intervals and the numbers can fortunately be dropped immediately into Excel.  As might be expected, the differences in the type of party demographic and tendency of certain types of precincts to report early or late produces what may appear to be a linear relationship over time that could (in theory, if all else is equal) be used to predict final outcomes.  I do not necessarily believe that this is the case, but I present, for your entertainment, what that would look like:

What does this (meaninglessly) predict:
Smer: 28.5%
SDKU: 24%
SMK: 12.5%
SNS: 11%
KDH: 8%
HZDS: 6%
SF: 4.5%
KSS: 3%

‘Twould be an interesting world if that were the case…

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