Trends have stabilized allowing a range of confidence for final results. The chart below shows trendlines (solid) beginning almost from the beginning, and shorter trendlines (dotted) beginning from about 50% reporting.
These results would suggest the following government possibilities:
|Smer+ HZDS+ SNS||85|
|Smer+ KDH+ SMK||84|
|Smer+ SDKU+ KDH||81|
|Smer+ SDKU+ SMK||81|
|SDKU+ SMK+ KDH||65|
This is not too different from what we’ve seen elsewhere but secures at least the mathematical possibility of Smer+KDH. From the looks of it, bargaining will determine the coalition. Fico has three distinct possibilities: HZDS/SNS, KDH/SMK or SDKU. Since he has resolutely refused to suggest a coalition direction, it may come down to the best offer.