Election Day: Return Trends 2

Trends have stabilized allowing a range of confidence for final results.  The chart below shows trendlines (solid) beginning almost from the beginning, and shorter trendlines (dotted) beginning from about 50% reporting.

These results would suggest the following government possibilities:

SNS 20
Smer 50
SMK 20
KDH 14
SF 0
Smer+ HZDS+ SNS 85
Smer+ KDH+ SMK 84
Smer+ SDKU 81
Smer+ SDKU+ KDH 81
Smer+ SDKU+ SMK 81

This is not too different from what we’ve seen elsewhere but secures at least the mathematical possibility of Smer+KDH.  From the looks of it, bargaining will determine the coalition.  Fico has three distinct possibilities: HZDS/SNS, KDH/SMK or SDKU.  Since he has resolutely refused to suggest a coalition direction, it may come down to the best offer.

3 thoughts on Election Day: Return Trends 2

  1. I’m still confused about the allocation of seats (I think it’s based on allocation rounds, but then what to do with that pesky last seat?).

    In any event – I note the possibility of a viable continuation of the current government, with HZDS moving from its silent support of the government to active participation (replacing ANO from the 2002-06 government). SDKU-SMK-HZDS-KDH would command 80 seats; this strikes me as sufficiently high to be worth considering.

    The problem of “sitting in the government” with Vladimir Meciar would be resolved neatly by making him the Speaker of the Parliament, where presumably he would do little harm.

    A counter-intuitive but viable alternative –which at 86 would be both strong and reasonably stable — would be SMER-HZDS-SMK; one could give Meciar the parliament and SMK their pick of non-economic ministries (except foreign affairs).

    I tend not to expect a SMER/HZDS/SNS government. This is better used as a threat than as a reality, and I’m sure Fico would not hesitate to tell a recalcitrant Hrusovsky or Bugar, “You always can be replaced….”

    Ultimately the decision may boil down not to what kind of offers SMER makes, but rather whether or not KDH and SMK decide they want to be in a center-left or center-right government, and to what extent they are willing to withstand the pressure to give Fico the premiership.

  2. Shawn, thank you for the excellent comments on every point. Interestingly (at least to somebody like me who finds dull things interesting, there is no need for allocation rounds with the final tally because everything divides evenly into 150 seats. The idea of Smer/HZDS/SMK is intriguing but you are right to say that much will depend on SMK and KDH. Still, I wonder that Fico will not be so desirous of being PM that he will not make any deal necessary. From here on out he can only lose votes, I think. A SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS government would not be a popular one, but I do not know if Fico’s supporters (voters and financiers) can stand another 4 years in the political wilderness without any rewards…

  3. Kevin,

    I think you’re right. Fico has to answer (and prioritize) three questions:
    (1) How much does he want to be PM?
    (2) How much does he want to enact his platform?
    (3) How much does he want to have international legitimacy (read: financial backing)?

    I would imagine that the markets will tolerate HZDS far more than than they would SNS, largely because Meciar is far more predictable (even though SNS’s platform is closer programmatically to SMER). But KDH and HZDS are oil and water.

    So Fico probably has two stable options if he wants to govern for four years:
    (a) SMER-KDH-SMK

    In the first scenario he has to live with the flat tax, but he probably can slow down the privatization and possibly reverse it slightly. My concern with this scenario is that KDH is too attached to its social agenda (as you point out) — and KDH is 180 degrees opposite to SMER on most issues.

    In the second scenario, he can change the tax structure but he won’t get anywhere with privatization reform. He’ll also get his social policies, since HZDS is fairly libertarian.

    I suspect SMK’s decision (and I imagine it will be SMK’s decision to make) will depend on whether Dzurinda is willing to cede the premiership to Miklos. If yes, then there may yet be a right-wing government for a few more years — at least until HZDS splinters again.

    NB: There was in fact one allocition round, because the RVC dvision (see this explanation in SME) leaves one seat unallocated. However, SMER’s unallocated fraction — 0.99 –was far higher than than the next largest unallocated fraction, so it picks up the extra seat.

Leave a Reply