It is still too early to tell whether either the OMV numbers accurately reflect the outcome (STV has been using it as its baseline for TV coverage, even though commentator Darina Malova has been extremely adept at suggesting caution) and whether the surprising MVK exit poll results are any better (again, some of the results are surprising), but it is possible from this vantage at least to look at what might or might not be possible. This is just "wheel-spinning" since we will need a better look at results, but I have a few minutes, so why not.
First, though, I am struck that my calculations show something very different from the way that Pravda has translated the Markiza/MVK numbers. http://imgs.pravda.sk/sk_domace/A060617_P02_PRVAPROGNOZA_V2_V.JPG
I cannot be 100% certain that these are wrong, but I’ve reworked my own calculations several ways using Markiza/MVK numbers and I get something different:
Their # My #
Smer 27.2% 45 48
SDKU 19.0% 32 34
SMK 11.8% 21 21
SNS 9.6% 18 17
HZDS 8.6% 17 15
KDH 8.6% 17 15
KSS 4.7% 0 0
SF 3.8% 0 0
If true, my numbers suggest a significantly higher percentage to the two largest parties. I am not sure how we arrived at such different numbers, but if my method is wrong, I would very much like to hear from somebody why.
In any case, I present below a number of possible seat distributions depending on polls (and, apparently, methods of calculation)
|OMV/STV||Markiza/MVK||Markiza/MVK||Markiza/MVK + KSS (5.0)||Markiza/MVK + KSS (5.2)|
|Smer+ HZDS+ SNS||84||80||80||76||75|
|Smer+ KDH+ SMK||79||83||84||80||79|
|Smer+ SDKU+ KDH||85||77||82||78||77|
|Smer+ SDKU+ SMK||86||77||82||78||77|
|SDKU+ SMK+ KDH||56||70||70||66||66|
Of main note here are several points:
- Smer+HZDS+SNS is viable in every circumstance (unless KSS manages to act as a spoiler and gets slightly above the 5% line, thus getting 9 seats instead of the minimal 8)
- Smer+KDH+SMK is viable in every circumstance, as are all other instances of Smer+2 of the three government parties
- Smer+SDKU is viable according to MVK/Markiza (thanks to SDKU’s strong showing there) but not in OMV
- SDKU+SMK+KDH is not viable in any circumstance though if both SF and KSS fail to get into parliament it may only have to "acquire" 6 votes from elsewhere.
- Even should SF exceed the threshold (a separate set of scenarios not shown here), it would still give a right wing coalition only 74 or 75 seats under the MVK numbers and fewer under the OMV numbers.
Polling results have started to come in, though it’s going to be hard to make guesses until the share of votes counted gets high. As some have noted, the returns will come in last in the cities and that might show a disadvantage for SDKU/SF until the final hours. We shall see.