Day After: Coalition Scenarios Revised

It’s 8 am Bratislava time and true to the promise of the Central Electoral Commission, all precincts are in.  Here is the new parliament:


There will be plenty of time in the next few days to discuss why this differed so significantly from what I supposed.  At present, I will focus briefly on what this portends.  First, the absence of KSS and SF greatly simplifies the set of coalition relationships, reducing the total number of possibilities from 256 to 64.


Of these, furthermore at least one is virtually unthinkable (SNS-SMK/MKP).  Many of the other "excluded relationships" involved SF or KSS, so other combinations are at least within the realm of possibility (though several parties have excluded the option of working with HZDS as long as Meciar remained at its head, and Meciar has made statements about his unwillingness to work with SNS chair Slota).

Of the 64 possible coalitions, 12 can be excluded because they contain SNS and SMK/MKP, 28 others do not muster a parliamentary majority, and 16 are larger than necessary for a majority.  (SME makes a muddle of this on its own page:
This leaves 8 possible coalition combinations which, because I think in graphic terms, I array below.  Among the possibilities, the most talked about are the first four:





Four others are less likely but still possible:


Using the data from a previous assessment, it is possible to gauge the internal antipathy of various members, at least at the mass level.  This may mean nothing, however, at the elite level when it comes time to making a bargain to form a government.

Coalition # Seats Weak-
est Link
3 Party: Smer+Oppo
85 -27 -16
2 Party: Smer+SDKU 81 -65 -65
3 Party: Smer+Mix
84 -69 -42
3 Party: Smer+Coal
84 -69 -49
3 Party: Smer+Mix
79 -69 -54
4 Party: No Smer Mix
80 -83 -49
4 Party: No Smer Mix
80 -90 -45
3 Party: Smer+Mix (HZDS/SMK) 80 -90 -58

So now the fun begins.

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