Election Day: Markiza’s Numbers

SME and Pravda have both published Markiza’s guess based on MVK numbers (the Markiza website’s Sprava page focuses instead on Siamese Twins in Los Angeles!).

Markiza Difference from average latest polls
Smer 27.2 -0.6
SDKU 19 +6.1
SNS 9.6 -0.3
HZDS 8.6 -3.0
SMK 11.8 +1.8
KDH 8.6 -0.7
KSS 4.7 -1.2
SF 3.8 -1.5
ANO 2 +0.4
HZD 1.3 -1.7

For Smer, KDH and SNS, this differs little from the previous month’s polling. For SDKU and SMK this result would represent a significant increase over polls (even given SDKU’s final-month increases). For HZDS this would represent a significant drop (and a particular humiliation were the party receive fewer voters than SNS). For KSS it would represent a smaller drop but a much
more significant one since it would put them below the 5% threshold.

I need to double check some calculations regarding the translation of seats into votes (Markiza’s appears to be wrong by several seats, but I need to confirm that) and will post parliament graphs and coalition possibilities when I’ve done the calculations.

Leave a Reply