SME and Pravda have both published Markiza’s guess based on MVK numbers (the Markiza website’s Sprava page focuses instead on Siamese Twins in Los Angeles!).
|Markiza||Difference from average latest polls|
For Smer, KDH and SNS, this differs little from the previous month’s polling. For SDKU and SMK this result would represent a significant increase over polls (even given SDKU’s final-month increases). For HZDS this would represent a significant drop (and a particular humiliation were the party receive fewer voters than SNS). For KSS it would represent a smaller drop but a much
more significant one since it would put them below the 5% threshold.
I need to double check some calculations regarding the translation of seats into votes (Markiza’s appears to be wrong by several seats, but I need to confirm that) and will post parliament graphs and coalition possibilities when I’ve done the calculations.