Election Day: Markiza’s Numbers
SME and Pravda have both published Markiza’s guess based on MVK numbers (the Markiza website’s Sprava page focuses instead on Siamese Twins in Los Angeles!).
| Markiza | Difference from average latest polls | |
| Smer | 27.2 | -0.6 |
| SDKU | 19 | +6.1 |
| SNS | 9.6 | -0.3 |
| HZDS | 8.6 | -3.0 |
| SMK | 11.8 | +1.8 |
| KDH | 8.6 | -0.7 |
| KSS | 4.7 | -1.2 |
| SF | 3.8 | -1.5 |
| ANO | 2 | +0.4 |
| HZD | 1.3 | -1.7 |
For Smer, KDH and SNS, this differs little from the previous month’s polling. For SDKU and SMK this result would represent a significant increase over polls (even given SDKU’s final-month increases). For HZDS this would represent a significant drop (and a particular humiliation were the party receive fewer voters than SNS). For KSS it would represent a smaller drop but a much
more significant one since it would put them below the 5% threshold.
I need to double check some calculations regarding the translation of seats into votes (Markiza’s appears to be wrong by several seats, but I need to confirm that) and will post parliament graphs and coalition possibilities when I’ve done the calculations.
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