Tag: UVVM

February 2008 UVVM: Smer near record high

It is hard to tell the same story in an interesting way every month (and maybe this is why Slovak papers, which unlike me have competing demands and limited space, do not tell the story at all). First the numbers:

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

Politický subjekt: december 2007 január 2008 február 2008
SMER- sociálna demokracia (SMER) 45,2 43,9 45,4
Slovenská demokratická a kresťanská únia – DS (SDKÚ-DS) 13,5 14,7 12,5
Slovenská národná strana (SNS) 11,2 14,0 12,4
Strana maďarskej koalície-Magyar Koalíció Pártja (SMK-MKP) 7,6 8,0 9,8
Ľudová strana – Hnutie za demokratické Slovensko (ĽS-HZDS) 9,3 7,2 9,4
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (KDH) 8,4 8,2 7,4
Komunistická strana Slovenska (KSS) 2,0 2,0 0,8
Hnutie za demokraciu (HZD) 1,0 0,8 0,8
Slobodné fórum (SF) 1,1 0,3 0,7
Aliancia nového občana (ANO) 0,0 0,5 0,5
Iná politická strana, hnutie, koalícia 0,7 0,4 0,3

This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows things more or less back where they were two months ago, with a slight uptick for MK (perhaps simply because the poll may have included more Hungarians) and slight downtick for SDKU. HZDS and SNS in particular are at levels very close to late 2007. The differences are more apparent in the short-term graph without Smer.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM suggests that the major overall change in the last four months in UVVM polling is the slide for SDKU (whether this has to do with their attempt to change the Media Law by withholding support for the Lisbon Treaty is obviously unclear) and the increase for MK back toward the historical norm (but this is so dependent on polling methodology that it is hard to distinguish this from noise). KSS falls below 1% for the first time since I started systematically to collect these numbers, (at least since 2002).

Overall, these changes have only a slight overall effect on overall support levels, so there is not much new to report there, but the current coalition does widen the gap despite the drop in SNS (more than compensated by rises for HZDS and Smer).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And the short-term graph:

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

In terms of bloc vote, the “right” (SDKU, KDH, ANO and SF) loses the slight lead it had acquired over the Slovak national bloc (HZDS, HZD, SNS) in the past 2 months, but there is no real change otherwise.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

And none of this has any real effect on the potential distribution of parliamentary seats. If these numbers were to hold, Smer could form a coalition with any other single party. And it inches here toward at least the theoretical possibility of a one-party government of the sort not seen since Meciar got 74 seats in 1992. Of course there are reasons for thinking that such a result is highly unlikely (soft support, a likely leveling off of the current economic growth), but it is no less impressive, given the other things that have changed since 1992 (fewer small, sub-threshold parties, more institutionalized opposition). However it is calculated and however soft the support is, Smer is doing something that very few parties in similar circumstances have manged.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

September-December 2007 Poll Comparison

Trends and Comparisons Monthly Report

Although I still do not have FOCUS data for January, it may be useful to post these individual-party graphs for the last 4 months of 2007. I will repost this as soon as I get the new data. In the charts below, Xs represent the firm UVVM, plusses represent FOCUS and diamonds represent MVK. The thick colored line represents an average of all three (or only UVVM and FOCUS of there is no monthly poll from MVK).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for Smer from multiple sources shows the large difference among polls that has proven the norm in the last two years. UVVM’s estimates for Smer exceed FOCUS’s by an average of about 7 percentage points on a baseline of 35. Why this is so is a mystery, even to some of the pollsters involved, though I hope to find out more. MVK’s numbers (marked by diamonds with no connecting lines since they are not published at monthly intervals) stand conveniently in the middle, almost precisely at the average of the other two. Whether this is an accident or the reflection of a more broadly based sample is not an easy question to answer. MVK’s final poll results before the 2006 election were no more closer to the actual election numbers than UVVM’s (and by some calculations, actually slightly slightly farther away).

UVVM and MVK show an almost identical gain (about 5 points) for Smer between October and December. FOCUS shows no such overall rise, but does agree on rising numbers between Nov. and Dec.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for SDKU, to the same scale, shows more or less the inverse pattern for Smer, at least in terms of the relative support for the party: FOCUS numbers are higher than UVVM by an average of about 3-4 percentage points on a baseline of 15. MVK does not stand in themiddle here but in Oct. stands with FOCUS and in December with UVVM.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS shows a slightly narrower range of disagreement among polls–only about 2-3 percentage points on a baseline of 13. The differences are consistent (FOCUS shows higher overall preferences for the party than UVVM) and in this case so are the trends: every poll shows a general drop of about 1-2 percentage points. UVVM shows this drop in September; FOCUS shows it in December.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for MK shows occasional fairly wide disagreement among polling firms. FOCUS consistently shows higher numbers than UVVM, but sometimes the differences approaches zero while other times it approaches 4 points on a baseline of 9, quite a big gap. Here MVK stands in the middle in October and on the high side in December. If anything suggests a difference in the network of poll-takers it is this graph. Since the elasticity of voting for Hungarian parties is relatively low (at least lower than for other parties), differences here are more likely to suggest differences in interviewing patterns rather than changes in public opinion. UVVM’s numbers look a bit low here, but that is simply a guess based on census numbers an irrespective of other factors that may be at play here.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for HZDS shows a less clear difference among polling firms than the results for other parties. Here a big and consistent difference in September and October (UVVM on the high side, FOCUS on the low side) reverses in Nov. and re-emerges much smaller in December. Here it is MVK that is consistently lower than the other two. All firms show the same trend–a drop of approximately 2 percentage points on a baseline of 9 percent. This consistency in the trending–rare among these graphs–bodes ill for HZDS. At this rate the party would fall below the threshold of electability by the middle of this year. Even more restrained trendlines show the party hovering consistently between 4 and 7 percent around the time of the next scheduled elections in June 2010.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows strikingly little difference among polling firms and little difference over time.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows a difference among firms of about 2 percentage points. This is small in percentage terms but large in relative terms and has major significance for the party’s future as they reflect the difference between “in striking range” (FOCUS) and “no chance” (UVVM). MVK here splits the difference. In June 2006 UVVM estimates of KSS were about 0.5 percentage points higher than those of MVK suggesting perhaps some primacy for MVK’s results here. These polls show a slight–but very slight–positive trend.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SF shows convergence around 1 percentage point, suggesting the party’s effective demise as an electoral party. How long it takes SF to respond to rumors of its own death are unclear but parties in Slovakia (as elsewhere) do tend to linger on the table. They are not alone in this. I do not include here charts for ANO and HZD because these have flatlined at around one as well.

One interesting side note in this regard, however. In contrast to existing parties like SF, ANO and HZD that receive almost no preferences, MVK surveys are consistently showing preferences for the Green Party–which to my understanding does not exist in a formal sense–at around 2%. I hope to find out more about this in coming meetings.

September-December 2007 Poll Average: Trends and Analyses

I offer the charts below to fill in gaps in previous reporting and to test the current blog setup. I hope to acquire data from FOCUS for January 2008 that will allow me to update this today. And UVVM data for February should already be available by next week.

As a side note, all of the data for this and previous posts is available in an on-line google spreadsheet posted at: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAPaeKoxMfAaXQ

Overall Monthly Report

Multiple-poll+average+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This graph averaging the last 24 months of polling results from multiple sources shows the current broad stability. Relative positions of parties have barely changed since the elections of 21 months ago.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph averaging the last 4 months of polling results from multiple sources also shows little change other than a slight rise for Smer and a slight decline for HZDS, likely the result of the SPF controversy.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This long-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows essentially no change.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows that changes in party preferences essentially occurred within coalition boundaries.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

This month’s distribution of parliamentary seats shows no fundamental difference in coalition math. If these estimates are accurate reflections of voting (here there is considerable reason for caution) elections today would allow Smer to form a 2-party coalition with any party in parliament, and the only coalition that could be formed without Smer is a coalition that included all other parliamentary parties (not likely since it would need to include both the Slovak National Party and the Hungarian Coalition).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As might be expected from the opinion data on which it is based, this long-term graph of distribution of parliamentary seats shows that the current expected distribution of parliamentary seats has changed little for since the 2006 election.