It is hard to tell the same story in an interesting way every month (and maybe this is why Slovak papers, which unlike me have competing demands and limited space, do not tell the story at all). First the numbers:
|Politický subjekt:||december 2007||január 2008||február 2008|
|SMER- sociálna demokracia (SMER)||45,2||43,9||45,4|
|Slovenská demokratická a kresťanská únia – DS (SDKÚ-DS)||13,5||14,7||12,5|
|Slovenská národná strana (SNS)||11,2||14,0||12,4|
|Strana maďarskej koalície-Magyar Koalíció Pártja (SMK-MKP)||7,6||8,0||9,8|
|Ľudová strana – Hnutie za demokratické Slovensko (ĽS-HZDS)||9,3||7,2||9,4|
|Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (KDH)||8,4||8,2||7,4|
|Komunistická strana Slovenska (KSS)||2,0||2,0||0,8|
|Hnutie za demokraciu (HZD)||1,0||0,8||0,8|
|Slobodné fórum (SF)||1,1||0,3||0,7|
|Aliancia nového občana (ANO)||0,0||0,5||0,5|
|Iná politická strana, hnutie, koalícia||0,7||0,4||0,3|
This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows things more or less back where they were two months ago, with a slight uptick for MK (perhaps simply because the poll may have included more Hungarians) and slight downtick for SDKU. HZDS and SNS in particular are at levels very close to late 2007. The differences are more apparent in the short-term graph without Smer.
This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM suggests that the major overall change in the last four months in UVVM polling is the slide for SDKU (whether this has to do with their attempt to change the Media Law by withholding support for the Lisbon Treaty is obviously unclear) and the increase for MK back toward the historical norm (but this is so dependent on polling methodology that it is hard to distinguish this from noise). KSS falls below 1% for the first time since I started systematically to collect these numbers, (at least since 2002).
Overall, these changes have only a slight overall effect on overall support levels, so there is not much new to report there, but the current coalition does widen the gap despite the drop in SNS (more than compensated by rises for HZDS and Smer).
And the short-term graph:
In terms of bloc vote, the “right” (SDKU, KDH, ANO and SF) loses the slight lead it had acquired over the Slovak national bloc (HZDS, HZD, SNS) in the past 2 months, but there is no real change otherwise.
And none of this has any real effect on the potential distribution of parliamentary seats. If these numbers were to hold, Smer could form a coalition with any other single party. And it inches here toward at least the theoretical possibility of a one-party government of the sort not seen since Meciar got 74 seats in 1992. Of course there are reasons for thinking that such a result is highly unlikely (soft support, a likely leveling off of the current economic growth), but it is no less impressive, given the other things that have changed since 1992 (fewer small, sub-threshold parties, more institutionalized opposition). However it is calculated and however soft the support is, Smer is doing something that very few parties in similar circumstances have manged.