I offer the charts below to fill in gaps in previous reporting and to test the current blog setup. I hope to acquire data from FOCUS for January 2008 that will allow me to update this today. And UVVM data for February should already be available by next week.
As a side note, all of the data for this and previous posts is available in an on-line google spreadsheet posted at: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAPaeKoxMfAaXQ
Overall Monthly Report
This graph averaging the last 24 months of polling results from multiple sources shows the current broad stability. Relative positions of parties have barely changed since the elections of 21 months ago.
This graph averaging the last 4 months of polling results from multiple sources also shows little change other than a slight rise for Smer and a slight decline for HZDS, likely the result of the SPF controversy.
This long-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows essentially no change.
This short-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows that changes in party preferences essentially occurred within coalition boundaries.
This month’s distribution of parliamentary seats shows no fundamental difference in coalition math. If these estimates are accurate reflections of voting (here there is considerable reason for caution) elections today would allow Smer to form a 2-party coalition with any party in parliament, and the only coalition that could be formed without Smer is a coalition that included all other parliamentary parties (not likely since it would need to include both the Slovak National Party and the Hungarian Coalition).
As might be expected from the opinion data on which it is based, this long-term graph of distribution of parliamentary seats shows that the current expected distribution of parliamentary seats has changed little for since the 2006 election.