Category: public opinion

February 2008: Trends and Comparisons

Trends and Comparisons Monthly Report

I offer here, as every month, a general and rather idiosyncratic look at poll numbers for Slovakia from rival political polling firms FOCUS and UVVM. (Toward that end, there will be a debate tonight–March 5 at 17:00–between Pavol Haulik of MVK–another of the big 3–and Ivan Dianiska from FOCUS at the Bratislavsky Institut Humanismu’s Klub BIH at Grosslingova 53). I’ll blog that if I can.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for Smer from multiple sources shows an overall rise for Smer by 3-5 percentage points in both of the major polls. These take it back to the highs that it reached in early 2007 before declining a bit. At present there is a strong inverse correlation between Support for Smer after the 2006 election and average monthly temperature. There is no evidence, however, that /this/ summer will bring a decline in Smer support.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for SDKU shows a decline that is roughly inverse to Smer’s rise, though the average of UVVM and FOCUS did not change over the last 3 months. March should tell us what the sudden visibility of leadership questions in the party have on its overall popularity. I would suspect the effect is small, and may be clouded by the effects of problems within KDH. Next month might show lots of change, or it might show no change at all in a way that hides lots of countervailing shifts in party preference.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS shows movement without fundamental change. The party floats consistently now between 11% and 14%

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for MK shows why poll averaging is important: individual poll changs tend to combine to reflect the overall stability that MK possesses on the basis of its strong ethnic support.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for HZDS showsa slight recovery in both FOCUS and UVVM for February but not enough to counteract the significant decline from Nov.-Jan. in the wake of the SPF scandals.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows gentle decline. We shall see whether the departure by Palko and Miklosoko affects the overall party performance. Loss of 2 of the 4 most popular individuals might hurt it somewhat, but it will be stabilized by the preservation of the party’s organizational base and by the fact that Palko et al did not immediately create a new party (which seems like a major tactical error, but perhaps one they could not avoid without prematurely reveailing their intentions). Supporters of Palko and Miklosko as of yet do not have anywhere else to go. It is interesting that in his recent interviews Palko has talked about a “party of patriotism” that would seek voters as much from SNS as from KDH. Whether this is realistic is an open question, though the potential erratic ebbs and flows of SNS leadership suggest that there is a tradeoff: a new party has a small change to make big gains at the expense of SNS, and a big chance to make small gains at the expense of KDH. As always, much will depend on timing.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For reasons that are not entirely clear to me, both UVVM and FOCUS show a significant and similar 2-point decline for KSS over the last 4 months. I hope at some point to write a brief note about the usefulness of maintaining party brand names because of their potential to re-emerge (KSS in 2002, SNS in 2006 in Slovakia; SZ in the Czech Republic) but I’m not sure they can successfully re-emerge twice.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SF shows a flat line, as do results for ANO. It will take a lot for these to re-emerge.

February 2008 Poll Average: Trends and Analyses

Overall Monthly Report

FOCUS numbers for February arrived just moments ago and thanks to new automated methods (and an hour of tweaks when the automatic methods proved not quite error-free), here are the most recent monthly averages of UVVM and FOCUS (and any other major pollster that announces its result during the period.

Since the FOCUS numbers do not significantly alter the UVVM trends for the same period, I will not go into overwhelming detail: Smer wins. SDKU and SNS form a distant second tier. SMK,KDH and HZDS remain stable in a low-but-electable third tier, and other parties flatline near zero.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This graph averaging the last 4 months of polling results from multiple sources shows a slo, consistent rise for Smer and relative stability for almost every other party except for slight declines in SDKU and KSS.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This long-term and short-term graphs of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows the effect of Smer’s increase on the overall coalition-opposition relationship. The gap is as large as it has ever been 63:37, a 26 point gap.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This long-term and short-term graphs of poll results for (loosely defined) party “blocs” parties shows gains on the “Left” for Smer countered by losses for KSS (this grouping as “Left” probably has less meaning than it has in the past, as Smer has moved in other directions), losses on the “Right” for SDKU enhanced by slight losses for KDH (and we shall see in mid-March whether the departure of Palko and Miklosko hurts KDH significantly), slight gains among the Slovak Nationalists and among the Hungarian Nationals which are so slight as to be attributable to statistical noise).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +party+blocs+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +party+blocs+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +party+blocs+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Viewed simply as a question of parliamentary seats, this means, as in every recent month, that if Smer’s success in the polls translates into ballot box success, it can have its pick of coalition partners in a 2-party government.
Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

The Trends and Comparisons Report for November-February should follow soon.

February 2008 UVVM: Smer near record high

It is hard to tell the same story in an interesting way every month (and maybe this is why Slovak papers, which unlike me have competing demands and limited space, do not tell the story at all). First the numbers:

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

Politický subjekt: december 2007 január 2008 február 2008
SMER- sociálna demokracia (SMER) 45,2 43,9 45,4
Slovenská demokratická a kresťanská únia – DS (SDKÚ-DS) 13,5 14,7 12,5
Slovenská národná strana (SNS) 11,2 14,0 12,4
Strana maďarskej koalície-Magyar Koalíció Pártja (SMK-MKP) 7,6 8,0 9,8
Ľudová strana – Hnutie za demokratické Slovensko (ĽS-HZDS) 9,3 7,2 9,4
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (KDH) 8,4 8,2 7,4
Komunistická strana Slovenska (KSS) 2,0 2,0 0,8
Hnutie za demokraciu (HZD) 1,0 0,8 0,8
Slobodné fórum (SF) 1,1 0,3 0,7
Aliancia nového občana (ANO) 0,0 0,5 0,5
Iná politická strana, hnutie, koalícia 0,7 0,4 0,3

This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows things more or less back where they were two months ago, with a slight uptick for MK (perhaps simply because the poll may have included more Hungarians) and slight downtick for SDKU. HZDS and SNS in particular are at levels very close to late 2007. The differences are more apparent in the short-term graph without Smer.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM suggests that the major overall change in the last four months in UVVM polling is the slide for SDKU (whether this has to do with their attempt to change the Media Law by withholding support for the Lisbon Treaty is obviously unclear) and the increase for MK back toward the historical norm (but this is so dependent on polling methodology that it is hard to distinguish this from noise). KSS falls below 1% for the first time since I started systematically to collect these numbers, (at least since 2002).

Overall, these changes have only a slight overall effect on overall support levels, so there is not much new to report there, but the current coalition does widen the gap despite the drop in SNS (more than compensated by rises for HZDS and Smer).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And the short-term graph:

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

In terms of bloc vote, the “right” (SDKU, KDH, ANO and SF) loses the slight lead it had acquired over the Slovak national bloc (HZDS, HZD, SNS) in the past 2 months, but there is no real change otherwise.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

And none of this has any real effect on the potential distribution of parliamentary seats. If these numbers were to hold, Smer could form a coalition with any other single party. And it inches here toward at least the theoretical possibility of a one-party government of the sort not seen since Meciar got 74 seats in 1992. Of course there are reasons for thinking that such a result is highly unlikely (soft support, a likely leveling off of the current economic growth), but it is no less impressive, given the other things that have changed since 1992 (fewer small, sub-threshold parties, more institutionalized opposition). However it is calculated and however soft the support is, Smer is doing something that very few parties in similar circumstances have manged.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia