Overall Monthly Report
FOCUS numbers for February arrived just moments ago and thanks to new automated methods (and an hour of tweaks when the automatic methods proved not quite error-free), here are the most recent monthly averages of UVVM and FOCUS (and any other major pollster that announces its result during the period.
Since the FOCUS numbers do not significantly alter the UVVM trends for the same period, I will not go into overwhelming detail: Smer wins. SDKU and SNS form a distant second tier. SMK,KDH and HZDS remain stable in a low-but-electable third tier, and other parties flatline near zero.
This graph averaging the last 4 months of polling results from multiple sources shows a slo, consistent rise for Smer and relative stability for almost every other party except for slight declines in SDKU and KSS.
This long-term and short-term graphs of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows the effect of Smer’s increase on the overall coalition-opposition relationship. The gap is as large as it has ever been 63:37, a 26 point gap.
This long-term and short-term graphs of poll results for (loosely defined) party “blocs” parties shows gains on the “Left” for Smer countered by losses for KSS (this grouping as “Left” probably has less meaning than it has in the past, as Smer has moved in other directions), losses on the “Right” for SDKU enhanced by slight losses for KDH (and we shall see in mid-March whether the departure of Palko and Miklosko hurts KDH significantly), slight gains among the Slovak Nationalists and among the Hungarian Nationals which are so slight as to be attributable to statistical noise).
Viewed simply as a question of parliamentary seats, this means, as in every recent month, that if Smer’s success in the polls translates into ballot box success, it can have its pick of coalition partners in a 2-party government.
The Trends and Comparisons Report for November-February should follow soon.