Better guesses: after 1000 polling stations

Usually once we get to 1000 polling stations, we can make a better guess.  Based on the experience of 2010 (and 2006), I’ve got a rough model of how it changes over time.  Here is that model applied to what we have in now.  I’m off to calculate the seat consequences of that, but it looks like 78-79 seats for Smer if all other parties get into parliament (including SNS and SMK) and more if one or more does not..

I think, by the way, that the estimate for SaS is too low.  For that party we just don’t have as much of a track record.  Same for OLANO.

Party After 1000 polling stations 2012 Prediction based on 1000 in 2010 Range
Smer 49.73 Will drop by about 5%-7% 45.8 47.7
SDKU 4.69 May rise by 10-15% 5.2 5.4
KDH 9.02 Should stay approximately the same (2010) or fall slightly (2006) 8.6 9.5
Most-Hid 5.45 should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 Most) 6.0 7.1
SNS 4.93 Should stay the same (2006) or rise slightly by a about 5-6% (2010) 4.9 5.2
SMK 4.24 should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 SMK) 4.7 5.5
SaS 3.97 Should rise by about 5-7% (2010) 4.0 4.4
OLaNO 7.1 May rise slightly? 2-5% (2010 based on SaS) 7.1 7.5

7 thoughts on Better guesses: after 1000 polling stations

  1. You have a nice methodology, way better then anyone else here and thats the scary thing … I am starting to pack my stuff and book some flying tickets

  2. Some estimations quite unprecise:
    SDKU and SaS +10% in Bratislava should raise about 0.8% alone, + additional at least +1% from other big cities as Kosice, Banska Bystrica, Presov, etc.

  3. Great as always, Kevin. It’ll be particularly interesting to see whether “Gorilla” altered the past trends in the differences between predictive polls and actual results.

  4. I thought that Fico will have a majority, I guess we should get ready for that. Hope it will not last too long.

  5. I’m wondering about the effects of the differential turnout as well. The turnout in Bratislava did appear to be very high, and in Eastern Slovakia low, and this could produce a bigger shift than expected as the night goes on…

    • Yes, that’s not at all built into the model. So we shall see. But hard not to see a Smer majority in this.

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