Update: KSS’s Tightrope Walk

Two quick notes:

First, the most recent MVK poll puts KSS at 4.8% which leads Pravda to conclude that "SF would succeed but not KSS" despite the fact that the in an accompanying piece,  the paper publishes analysis by Pavol Haulik which suggests that the party would succeed because of its "hidden voters.  The track record of the past four years suggests that Haulik is probably closer to the truth.  Furthermore, while I argued that  consistent poll showings below 5% will hurt the parties on the margins (as their voters realize the futility and switch elsewhere), a result of 4.8% is probably close enough to be within some sort of "margin of hope" and may actually bring a few people out because they feel their votes might make a positive difference.  This is all conjecture.  The big news will apparently come on Thursday and Friday with the last minute results of major polls

Second, in my previous post on KSS, I argued that if KSS and SF were to fall below the 5% threshold ",a two-party government led by Smer is almost
assured."  In retrospect, this is almost assuredly wrong.   I lazily based that calculation on the opinion poll percentages rather than guesses about parliamentary representation based on past results.  Since Smer is almost certainly over-polling, this correction is necessary.  Using my own estimation (which may be a bit unfavorable to Smer but probably not by much), exclusion of KSS and SF does not create many opportunities for a two-party government.  In fact, as the graph below shows, even the two largest parties according to this estimation (Smer and SDKU) would together reach only 75 votes (and this model may be slightly too favorable to SDKU).  It will take unlikely circumstances to permit a two-party majority government in Slovakia after Saturday’s election.


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