Five Days to Go: The MVK Numbers

I will try to deal with polls as they come in.  Smer suggests that the major numbers may come as soon as Thursday but that some may come on Friday.  We should have several data sources to work with by that point.

Until that point, all we have is the latest MVK, conducted between June 2 and June 8 (last Thursday).   The table below compares it to the most MVK poll and the averages of all polls from April and May:

Party Average of Polls MVK Polls
April May June Change from May
Smer 33.6 30.6 30.4 -0.8
HZDS 12.2 10.7 10.1 0.4
SMK 9.6 10.1 9.0 -1.6
KDH 9.0 9.6 10.2 1.3
SNS 8.0 9.0 8.3 -1.6
SDKU 9.3 9.9 11.4 2.5
SF 7.5 6.6 7.5 0.7
KSS 4.5 5.4 4.8 -1.7
HZD 1.9 2.3 1.6 -0.7
ANO 2.8 2.8 2.4 -0.4

The central story here is consistency:  the June numbers differ little from the previous month, either from MVK’s own polls or from the average of all polls.  Of the differences, many are the direction that the turnout-based model predicts: SDKU, KDH and HZDS show gain (greatest for SDKU) in the final weeks, Smer and SNS show a loss.  The other three parties do not follow the predicted pattern: SF increases slightly, KSS decreases slightly and SMK decreases by a somewhat larger amount.  This last change is an important sign that individual polls cannot be taken too seriously (even if they offer support to a model that the author wants to show is valid).  There is no obvious reason why SMK’s support would drop at all, much less by 1.6 percentage points, and so this is clearly an artifact of the polling methodology and the margin of error inherent in any sampling.  But if SMK’s poll numbers change despite fundamental stability of the party’s electoral base, then this could be true of any of the other numbers as well.  For now it’s best to wait for the other polls for a final average.

In the bigger picture, even if the changes can be taken as real, they have very little effect on the formation of a government.  The parliament that would emerge from the MVK numbers is so close to that which would emerge from the previous month’s average numbers as to make little difference.  As before, there almost is no chance for a SDKU-led coalition, and as before Smer will require three parties to form a government (and as before, my turnout model suggests that a Smer-SNS-HZDS government could not muster a majority).   The only real change suggested by the recent MVK numbers is the possible absence of KSS, but MVK chair Haulik immediately nuanced the numbers to suggest that KSS still had a good chance of making it through.

More numbers will probably tell the same story of stability, but I will nevertheless attempt to analyze them as they come in.

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