Better guesses: after 1000 polling stations
Usually once we get to 1000 polling stations, we can make a better guess. Based on the experience of 2010 (and 2006), I’ve got a rough model of how it changes over time. Here is that model applied to what we have in now. I’m off to calculate the seat consequences of that, but it looks like 78-79 seats for Smer if all other parties get into parliament (including SNS and SMK) and more if one or more does not..
I think, by the way, that the estimate for SaS is too low. For that party we just don’t have as much of a track record. Same for OLANO.
|Party||After 1000 polling stations 2012||Prediction based on 1000 in 2010||Range|
|Smer||49.73||Will drop by about 5%-7%||45.8||-||47.7|
|SDKU||4.69||May rise by 10-15%||5.2||-||5.4|
|KDH||9.02||Should stay approximately the same (2010) or fall slightly (2006)||8.6||-||9.5|
|Most-Hid||5.45||should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 Most)||6.0||-||7.1|
|SNS||4.93||Should stay the same (2006) or rise slightly by a about 5-6% (2010)||4.9||-||5.2|
|SMK||4.24||should rise considerably 10% (2006 SMK) to 30% (2010 SMK)||4.7||-||5.5|
|SaS||3.97||Should rise by about 5-7% (2010)||4.0||-||4.4|
|OLaNO||7.1||May rise slightly? 2-5% (2010 based on SaS)||7.1||-||7.5|