Tag: public opinion

December 2008: Poll Averages and Comparisons

Overall Monthly Report:
Record highs for Smer and disagreements elsewhere

For the first time I can remember we have both FOCUS and UVVM numbers by mid-month (FOCUS getting there first this month) and so we can do a quick analysis already.  If time allows over the holiday season, I may try to do a few more year-on-year comparisons.

This graph averaging the last 24 months of polling results from multiple sources shows a number for Smer that is higher than any previous average.  Although the party is not at is record high for either UVVM or FOCUS, this is the first time it has been at a near-record high for both in the same month.  SDKU is at a correspondingly record low, though since these parties do not share the same voter pool and any correspondence is likely a coincidence.  (Unlike Smer, furthermore, SDKU is not seeing numbers that are unprecedented for the party: what is here a record low would have been for the party a near record high between 2003 and 2006, though then the party was in the tougher position of bearing responsibility for government actions)

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These numbers do not give the party a majority of seats but they do bring it within 3 of a majority, again the highest numbers recorded for a poll average.  The opposition, by this calculation, would have a mere 46, less than 2/3 of Smer alone.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

It is worthwhile to note the degree to which these numbers reflect disagreement among pollsters, however.  In the first place, the “Smer-gap” has re-emerged.  Smer numbers for FOCUS have recently notched upward, but now so have its numbers for UVVM, so we are back at a 6 point difference which is smaller than before only in the sense that it must be measured against a higher baseline for Smer so that it accounts for a smaller overall percentage.
Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For SDKU, however, the gap has now disappeared and both polls show the party at the exact same level, just above 11%, though not quite in need of the shift in axis that SNS suffered in last month’s poll (from the 10%-20% range to 5-15%).  Still, the news for SDKU is not good.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS shows the return of divergence after long months of near-agreement. FOCUS shows a continuing slide while UVVM shows a sharp rise.  Is politicization of conflicts with Hungary working for SNS?  It depends on your pollster.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For MK it does not depend on the pollster–we are back to agreement after a month of disagreement–but MK numbers have been so erratic (given its base) that it is hard to know what to think.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

As with SNS, it was either a good month or a bad month for HZDS depending on your pollster.  The party’s numbers from FOCUS this month exceed its numbers from UVVM, something that has happened only 4 times in the 30 months since the previous election.  Regardless of relative position, the two are quite close suggesting that the party’s polling level lies around 8% at present, not good for a party that regularly commanded twice that level four years ago, but not in danger of extinction.  Long term trends show the party falling below 5% but not in the next year.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows the emergence of a gap that had, for a while, disappeared.  Through most of 2007 the party polled better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again, with a nearly 4 percentage point gap, one of the highest in percentage terms for any party.  Both, however, show a slight rise for the party from November to December.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows little change: the party usually polls better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

If all we had were FOCUS numbers, it would be easy to accuse this post of burying the lead: “SF nears threshold of electability.”  That may be true, especially as dissatisfaction with SDKU appears to grow, but here we find it’s only true of one poll:  The party scores 4.5% with FOCUS but remains mired at 1% with UVVM.  There is a story here but it is hard to know which way it is going.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Other parties remain low.  The November bump for HZD has receded in December and ANO is at at near-record lows with both FOCUS and UVVM for the party’s lowest-ever result in poll averages (0.2%).  Its decline in the FOCUS poll may help to explain some of the rise for SF which is its alternative on the non-parliamentary “right.”  The category of “Other” party is also extremely low, suggesting that respondents do not spontaneously offer the Green Party, the Conservative Democrats or Liga-OLS.  Of course this depends on the nature of the questioning: MVK appears to include the Green Party on its list and regularly receives percentages of about 2% for that party.  The same might be true of KDS or Liga if their names were included.

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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December 2008 UVVM: The High Plateau

UVVM Monthly Report

This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows Smer back up to a near majority in preferences and with a majority of parliamentary seats while the opposition fades back toward the 30% mark it reached in July and previously in January of 2007.  With the exception of Smer’s rise, however, these numbers are not reflected in this month’s FOCUS poll (which for the first time in my memory beat UVVM to the punch) and which I will discuss in the next post.  This month the FOCUS and UVVM data are at odds in many areas, with one of the highest levels of disagreement between the two (excluding Smer) in the past 18 months, but more on that later.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM minus Smer shows a reversal in the positions of SDKU and SNS, suggesting that the polarization on Hungary-related issues may be working (FOCUS does not show quite the same trend, but again more on that later).  HZDS continues a minor slide with its second lowest score ever in a UVVM poll (though in FOCUS the party holds its own this month).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Adding these up, the strong month for Smer and SNS minus a slight decline in HZDS gives the coalition a near-record high, just shy of 7 out 0f every 10 voters in Slovakia expressing a preference.  The mirror image non-coalition parties drop to 3 in 10.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

The same basic trends apply to blocs.  The rise for SNS counters the drop for HZDS for stability in the “Slovak National” bloc while the drop in SDKU hurts the “Right.”UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And a few percentage points here or there makes a huge difference in the nature Slovakia’s potential future government: were these election results, Smer would need no other partners, a development that could significantly reshape the nature of Slovakia’s politics.UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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Poll Comparisons: August-November 2008

August-November 2008 Poll Comparisions

Trends and comparisons monthly report

Although the overall figures for the last four months show little change, there have been some curious shifts in the polling numbers of various polling firms.  A graph of recent polling results for Smer from multiple sources shows in particular a sharp increase among Smer supporters on FOCUS polls, especially in October, when FOCUS and UVVM produced the same result.  (For context, the last time that Smer numbers were higher in FOCUS polls than in UVVM polls was April 2006, and since the June 2006 elections Smer’s numbers from UVVM have exceed its numbers from FOCUS by an average of 6 percentage points.  Smer’s preferences were not higher in MVK polls, however, and the party’s record highs in FOCUS polls were counteracted by record lows in MVK, especially in November.  (A side note: because UVVM and FOCUS produced identical results for Smer in October, the overlapping of their + and x symbols misleadingly produces a near-circle that resembles the indicator used here for MVK).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for SDKU shows a reorientation of polling numbers but a stable aggregate.  Numbers for UVVM dropped sharply between October and November but rose sharply for MVK.  They stayed the same for FOCUS and the overall result is an average identical to the previous month.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS for the entire season shows tight clustering around the mean, with no more than 1 percentage point difference between any party and the mean.  That mean appears to have settled between 10-11% in the last three months and it is intriguing that this has happened despite an escallation in tensions between Slovakia and Hungary and heightened rhetoric and visibility for Slota.  December’s UVVM numbers may help figure out if there is any delayed effect but if not, it bodes ill for SNS which should be seeing some boost from the conflict.  A side note, I found it necessary this month to shift the range of the graph for SNS from a 10%-20% scale (like SDKU) to a 5%-15% scale (like SMK, HZDS and KDH).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for MK again show unexpected volatility for what should be a stable population.  FOCUS numbers (hidden under the MVK circle) rebounded from near record lows in the October poll to something closer to the recent FOCUS averages for MK.  The inclusion in November of numbers from MVK (which tends to produce higher numbers for MK than other firms) brought the party’s average back up above 9% but I now have little doubt that MK’s numbers have begun to trail the party’s demographic base in a way they have not done in the past.  Whether this means they will poll lower in elections is an open question.  It will also be interesting to see if December numbers show the conflict between Slovakia and Hungary producing higher MK numbers.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for HZDS shows more stability than for other parties.  The relative positions of pollsters remains unchanged and the party’s average has not changed by 0.5% percentage points from month to month.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows a bit more volatility than has been the recent norm, with a sharp drop by UVVM countered by a sharp rise by FOCUS.  MVK hugs the mean for this party, as it has often done.  The KDH-splinter party KDS registered for the first time above random noise on MVK’s September survey (though at a mere 0.8%), but the (as usual) haphazard reporting of results by major Slovak dailies does give any information about that party’s performance in November.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows stability.  Good MVK numbers bring the party up near 3% for the first time in half a year but little else seems to have changed.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SF shows bigger changes.  After October’s consensus at the 2% mark, FOCUS now shows the party at 3% while the UVVM numbers are back at 1%.  This is always difficult to gauge since the party’s total support is below the margin of error, even assuming no sampling problems.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Finally, while I did not prepare the graphs, HZD is at a post election high of 1.9, perhaps because of former party chair Gasparovic’s presidential election bid (the party saw a significant but fleeting gain during Gasparovic’s last effort) while ANO hovers on the threshold of non-existence with another 0.5%.

November 2008: Monthly Poll Averages

November 2008 Poll Averages

Overall Monthly Report: Continuity continued

How many ways to write the same story.  While there are some interesting variations among polls (to be covered in the next post) the overall story of Slovakia’s party support remains astoundingly consistent.  This month takes the edge off of some extremes in last month, most notably last month’s peak performance by Smer (the result of a major rise in its FOCUS numbers which this month have receded somewhat, though they remain higher than before) and valley numbers for SMK (also thanks to unusual FOCUS numbers).  This simply puts every party back at their overall recent averages:

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This long-term graph of poll results for coalition and non-coalition parties shows a slight drop in the coalitions performance because (unlike in October) there was no Smer increase to balance weakness in SNS and HZDS:

Multiple-poll+average+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia
The long-term graph of poll results for (loosely defined) party “blocs” parties shows very little change over time.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +party+blocs+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And as always (of late), the month’s distribution of parliamentary seats shows a near majority by Smer.  If the election were held today, it would have its choice of a single partner.Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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Poll Analysis: UVVM Volatility

Also available in Slovak, here

I have occasionally expressed concern about the recent numbers coming out of UVVM, particularly those for the Party of the Hungarian Coalition.  Something is wrong there. In the spirit of my heroes at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com, I decided to take a look at the data.  The chart below calculates the total month-to-month differences in party results (up, or down) and then measures these as a percentage of a party’s average support during that period (i.e. a party with an average support of 20 percentage points and average monthly volatility of 1 percentage points would be listed at 5%).  I have done the calculations for the overall average (all of the polls within a given month) and for UVVM and for the two electoral periods for which we have good data: 2002-2006 and 2006-present.

Party 2002-2006 2006-2008
  Overall UVVM Difference Overall UVVM Difference
Smer 7.0% 9.2% 2.2% 8.9% 7.8% -1.1%
SDKU 12.5% 16.4% 3.8% 13.2% 16.2% 3.1%
SNS 14.7% 18% 3.3% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0%
MK 8.0% 12.0% 4.0% 10.1% 16.1% 6.0%
HZDS 9.9% 12.4% 2.5% 12.2% 14.1% 2.0%
KDH 10.4% 16.1% 5.8% 10.2% 10.9% 0.7%
Average 10.4% 14% 3.6% 11.1% 12.9% 1.8%

What is not surprising here is that UVVM alone has much higher levels of volatility than the overall average which includes multiple polls that smooth out the monthly variability.  What is surprising here is the fact that the the difference in volatility of SMK between UVVM and the overall average grew (from 4% to 6%) even as the differences between UVVM and other surveys declined.  Between 2002 and 2006 the volatility of SMK was second to the bottom (after Smer) in both UVVM and overall averages.  Between 2006 and 2008, the SMK volatility stayed the second lowest in the overall averages but rose to highest in UVVM by a wide margin.

This is all particularly surprising since the overall volatility of the Hungarian Coalition’s electorate have remained remarkably stable over time, as the following table demonstrates:

Party (elections in sample) Volatility as a share of average party support Raw volatility
ANO (2002,2006) 103.2% 4.9%
SNS (1994,1998,2002,2006) 80.5% 5.9%
Smer (2002,2006) 73.6% 15.7%
KSS (1994,1998,2002,2006) 51.2% 2%
SDKU (2002,2006) 45.1% 7.5%
HZDS (1994,1998,2002,2006) 38.7% 8.7%
MK (1994,1998,2002,2006) 11.4% 1.2%
KDH (1994,2002,2006) 10.7% 0.9%

There is an easy explanation for this:  UVVM has had difficulty maintaining its Hungarian sample.  This is understandable–this is a difficult task–but it is important to keep this potential problem in mind rather than to assume that all polls actually reflect representative samples.  This should be a question of analysis rather than assumption.  It also raises questions about the representativeness of this sample (and that of other pollsters) for other parties.

I am deeply grateful to UVVM for all the support they have provided to me over time. This is a problem that needs attention but I am hopeful that the institute can return to its previous levels of excellence.

October 2008: UVVM

UVVM Monthly Report: October 2008

Also available in Slovak, here

UVVM reverted to the mean this month, its poll numbers pulling back from extremes for most of the major parties and toward the results obtained by other pollsters.  There are gains to be made from a comparative analysis of various polls, but as usual the major papers (http://spravy.pravda.sk/opozicne-strany-si-mierne-polepsili-dvg-/sk_domace.asp?c=A081015_151947_sk_domace_p04)
present these without a hint of analysis from ČTK  which itself takes these numbers as givens rather than as a particular (and with regard to SMK, particularly troubling) survey.

Otherwise (and maybe this is why the papers do not bother to put more energy into it) there is not much to see here that is new:

Smer leads, but not as much as before.  SDKU moves slightly upward into clearer (but far distant) second place while SNS sinks toward the other three major parties:

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia
The movement of the mid-size parties is clearer here.  Particularly troubling is the movement for SMK.  A party which has by far the most stable overall electorate and the most stable historical voting patterns has the highest level of volatility in month-to-month poll numbers of any major party in UVVM surveys (see a more in-depth post here: http://www.pozorblog.com/#/p=110).  (HZDS has also been rather volatile, and while it is possible that this party’s support is actually a bit more volatile, its major swings also seem to be more the result of survey networks than actual shifts in public opinion.)

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia
Aggregated according to blocs, the shifts above mean a slightly closer gap between opposition and coalition, but no different than the overall average for the period.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Vote blocs, too, stay roughly the same.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

And Smer is still likely to be able to build a coalition with a single party of its own choosing.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

<br />

August 2008: Poll Comparisons

Trends and comparisons monthly report

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10FOCUS numbers for August are in and I include them below.  In general the monthly numbers are either unsurprising and when they /are/ surprising it is tempting to dismiss them as somehow exceptional.  Notable this time is the average for UVVM and FOCUS which suggests that the midsummer rise for Smer might have been real (both polls show the same pattern) but that it was also temporary.  August numbers for Smer are back down to the high end of Smer’s normal range.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } The same numbers suggest that July’s remarkably poor performance for SDKU may have been a blip rather than a genuine change since numbers for both polls in August are back almost exactly to where they were in June.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } There has been much higher consistency among polls for SNS preferences and these show a recovery from a downward trend back to the party’s normal range (since the 2006 elections) between 12 and 13.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } Polls for MK are back in synch, close together near the party’s 2008 average of 9%.  It is notable, however, that this is a full point lower than the party’s 2006 average which, for a party with such an exclusively ethnic base, suggests either the departure of non-Hungarian supporters (unlikely since there were never that many) or a loss in the party’s ability to mobilize its own ethnic base (likely the result of Csaky’s replacement of Bugar, though the long-term numbers do not show any sharp drop in the party’s support around the time that Csaky took charge.)

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } In August, HZDS polls move from a period of tight convergence to a month of wide variation.  UVVM numbers are at the high end of the party’s 2008 average; FOCUS numbers are at the low end and are, in fact, the lowest level of preference the party has ever received in a major poll.  This may be a blip but the frequency of “record lows” for the party bodes ill.  Nevertheless, even with this data point included, the 1 and 2 year trendlines based on average data still put the party above the 5% threshold in mid-2010 (between 6.0 and 6.8).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } KDH has shown fairly wide variation in FOCUS polls but its trendline has remained essentially flat; in UVVM polls, however the party has shown a remarkably consistent climb from its early-2008 low to a level that is at least a point above its 2006 performance.  This recovery may reflect KDH’s own internal recovery from the early-year turmoil related to the departure of Palko and Miklosko coupled with a lack of similar recovery within SDKU, whose members may be shifting to their next-best alternative.Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } Between parties above and parties below the 5% threshold we still see a big gap.  HZDS’s decline, pushing its average below the 8% mark, has been matched a decline in KSS, its averages falling below the 2% mark for only the second time since 2006, so the gap between smallest-big party and biggest-small party is still 6%.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

BODY { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } P { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } DIV { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } TD { FONT-FAMILY:Verdana; FONT-SIZE:10pt } Among the other parties, SF stays stuck around 1% (despite its small advertising blitz of the summer which did seem to net a few preferences, at least in the FOCUS and MVK polls), HZD has shown a slight rise, perhaps the result of more presidential campaigning by Gasparovic, but still has not cracked 2.5% in any poll since 2006.  ANO no longer figures at all, consistently pulling a smaller percentage of the population than those who believe they have been abducted by aliens, with a flat trend at 0.5%.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg
And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

<br />

Two-thirds Rule

A brief note here to comment on one specific element of Robert Fico’s press conference remarks here regarding contracts received by those close to Smer: “the government coalition will not allow discrimination against two-thirds of the population only because they sympathize with the government party.” (see below in red).

This is notable for several reasons,

  • first because it is a nice example of the power of the current coalition’s public opinion position as political argument (popularity here becomes a justification for actions) and, within that framework, of a particular interpretation of public opinion.  It is certainly fair to say that 2/3 of Slovakia’s current voters support Smer, HZDS or SNS, but to the extent that in any given poll about 30% of voters do not support any party.  Of course this is ordinary political use of numbers and nothing particularly unusual or scandalous.
  • Second, and I noticed the artfulness only in translating and transcribing, there is the notion of government refusing to permit discrimination.  This is a common argument, but it is distinctive here because the prime minister is arguing that he will not permit discrimination against his own supporters.  The powerful subtext here, and what allows this to work despite the fact that in the same sentence he notes that he and his coalition partners have a clear supermajority in public opinion, is the spectre of dominant forces other than 2/3 the people who seek to do them harm.  I have been noting for some time how well Fico has maintained his anti-establishment position despite having almost sole control of the strongest party (and coalition) in Slovakia’s postcommunist history.  Whether he can keep this up is another question (and I have consistently been wrong in predicting that he couldn’t, but that is a question for another post).  The key appears to be his ability to persuade others (perhaps because he believes it to be true) that others (media, the former opposition, the United States, foreign investors) are the ones shaping Slovakia’s destiny.  Balancing that appeal to weakness with appeals to his own efficacy requires a delicate sense of balance.  So far he has proven himself a master.

Nedovolíme diskrimináciu ľudí len preto, že nás podporujú, odkázal médiám Fico

22. augusta 2008  16:28
Premiér Robert Fico sa znovu zastal ministerky práce Viery Tomanovej, ktorá čelí kritike za sporné štátne dotácie ľuďom blízkym jeho strane Smer-SD. Premiér zdôraznil, že nezákonné postupy alebo predražené tendre bude trestať, zároveň však je podľa neho prirodzené, ak sa predstavitelia vlády snažia v súlade so zákonom podporiť obce a mestá, ktoré vedú zástupcovia vládnych strán.

Predseda vlády Robert Fico počas tlačovej besedy, na ktorej oznámil, že vládna koalícia nedovolí diskrimináciu dvoch tretín obyvateľov len preto, že sympatizujú s vládnymi stranami.
Predseda vlády Robert Fico počas tlačovej besedy, na ktorej oznámil, že vládna koalícia nedovolí diskrimináciu dvoch tretín obyvateľov len preto, že sympatizujú s vládnymi stranami.

(autor: SITA)

Vládna koalícia nedovolí diskrimináciu dvoch tretín obyvateľov len preto, že sympatizujú s vládnymi stranami, vyhlásil premiér na brífingu, po ktorom nepripustil žiadne otázky. Predseda vlády chcel len novinárom ukázať prípady “straníckeho klientelizmu” vo fungovaní americkej demokracie a aj tak ich presvedčiť, že za dotáciami svojim nie je nič nemorálne.

Kritiku za podporu sociálnych podnikov v oblastiach s vysokou nezamestnanosťou považuje za zvrhlú. Zároveň oznámil, že už viac nebude reagovať na mediálne útoky a rôzne pseudokauzy, ako boli sociálne podniky či verejné obstarávania. “Vy nemôžete nahradiť Úrad pre verejné obstarávanie,” povedal médiám.

Fico: Nenecháme sa terorizovať médiami

Zdroj: SITA • 5,14 MB • zaznamenané: 22. 8. 2008

Ministerstvo práce podľa tlače pridelilo spolu asi 500 miliónov korún (16,6 milióna eur) na budovanie takzvaných sociálnych podnikov spoločnostiam, s ktorými sú spojení poslanci a členovia premiérovej strany. Tomanová (Smer-SD) však nedávno odmietla úvahy, že žiadatelia ťažili so svojich kontaktov s najsilnejšou vládnou stranou. Sociálne podniky by mali pomáhať znižovať nezamestnanosť. Určené sú napríklad pre ľudí, ktorí sú bez práce dlhodobo.

“Nebudeme považovať za neprípustné, ak napríklad v prípade dvoch rovnocenných projektov s rovnakou kvalitou a rovnakým výsledným efektom člen vlády uprednostní starostu či primátora za vládnu koalíciu,” vyhlásil Fico. Podmienkou podľa neho však je, aby nebol porušený zákon.

Ministerka Tomanová už v minulosti čelila výhradám za vyplatenie štátnej podpory Centru privátnych sociálnych služieb Privilégium napriek tomu, že na ňu nemalo nárok. Za sporné dotácie z verejných zdrojov nedávno musel na žiadosť premiéra odísť Jaroslav Izák (SNS) z postu ministra životného prostredia. Predražené tendre zas stáli miesto ministra obrany Františka Kašického zo Smeru-SD.

Nedovolíme diskrimináciu ľudí len preto, že nás podporujú, odkázal médiám Fico – Pravda.sk – Flock

Small (and getting smaller) parties

In a previous post I noted a growing gap between parties above the threshold of electability and those below, one that was unusual by Slovakia’s standards.  Thanks to the generosity of UVVM, FOCUS and IVO, which opened various archives to me during my time in Slovakia, I can now show a much longer time series (though numbers before 1999 are sketchier than those after because of a relative dearth of polls and less systematic methods of reporting.

Here is the development of the gap over time between the smallest “viable” party (i.e. one with more than 5%) and the largest “non-viable” party (i.e. one with less than 5%):

Viability gap in Slovakia, 1990-2008

Something is clearly changing.  With the exception of a few surveys in 1999 (like the result of the temporary consolidation of small parties into the Slovak Democratic Coalition) there were very few gaps larger than 5% from Slovakia’s first election in 1990 until its most recent in 2006 (in fact only one in twenty polls during that period showed such a large gap) whereas since 2006 there are almost no gaps smaller than 5% (only about one in ten).  In fact the band around the threshold of viability now utterly empty: since the 2006 election not a single party has had a monthly polling average in the range between 3.3% and 7.2%. Not one.

As might be expected, the gap has meant a sharp reduction in the overall share of preferences received by small parties.  The graph below shows the same trend.

Sum of Preferences for Small Parties in Slovakia

Small parties used to collect about 10%-20% but this is no longer the case.  The total number of preferences for parties below the 5% threshold in August 2008 was 4.2%. Put in other words, even if all the supporters for obscure parties banded together (not very likely), they would not together have enough to cross the threshold. Between the 1990 and 2006 elections only 17 of the 161 months with surveys showed a sum below 5%; since the 2006 elections only 1 of the 26 months shows a sum above 5%.

There is no single clear explanation for this change but there are several reasons that might make sense:

  • Smer and SDKU have “mopped up” several of the smaller parties (and the re-unification of SNS helped in this direction as well).
  • Voters have finally decided that they do not want to “waste” their votes on small parties (though of course “waste” is a contentious term in itself since there are reasons to vote for parties that have nothing to do with those parties’ chances for election to parliament).  Evidence from recent IVO surveys shows that voters think consciously about the support received by the party they intend to vote for and are less likely to vote for a party that might not get elected (preferring to give their votes to an electable second choice).  Unfortunately we do not have older data on this and cannot easily perform a time series.
  • Media and financial structures have come to play such a strong role in party choice that small parties which cannot get media attention or financial sponsorship cannot attract meaningful support and drop from the public radar screen.

The current “all-or-nothing” pattern of party support does not mean that there is no chance for new parties, but it does suggest that it is even more difficult for a party to to climb its way up from below as KSS did in 2002.  As before, new parties will need to drop in from above as big splinters of even bigger parties with dissatisfied electorates (DU, and to some extent ZRS and Smer) or as saviors (Smer, ANO, SOP).

Back from outer space (and/or Finland)

But still in the stratosphere (and/or Ferndale).

July

A virtually computer-free vacation meant no July poll analysis. There is one (and really only one) sense in which this is unfortunate: July polls showed something I have never seen before in Slovakia, a one-party parliamentary majority.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

In the UVVM July survey, Smer polled 48.5% which, after factoring out all the parties below the five-percent threshold (see the next post on small parties) gives the party just over 50% of all supporters of electable parties and, thanks to some slightly favorable electoral-system math, one vote more than half.%C2%A0 Whether or not the party sustains this level of support, the instance itself is notable because it is unprecedented: 48.5% of voters expressing a party preference, 76 seats, 4.2 times as many as the next largest party, 5 times as many as the next largest opposition party.

August

So far all we have for July or August are the UVVM polls so I will use the restricted comparison set here. The August UVVM polls put Smer back down to 44.9% which is still at the high end of its previous “normal” range, with “only” 3.5 times as many supporters as the next largest party (once again the opposition party SDKU).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

The same “return to normal” is apparent for the smaller parties (and compared to Smer,
every party is a smaller party). July’s record high for Smer was accompanied by a post-election record low for SDKU (9.7%, in percentage terms an even bigger shift from the average than Smer’s high-water mark) but August returns the party to the (low side of the) 11%-15% range where it has been since the election. Since SNS has showed a steady climb back from its poor showings in May and June, this again leaves us with the 3-track pattern of party support–Smer around 40, SDKU and SNS around 13 and HZDS, MK and KDH around 9–that dominated the first half of 2008. Indeed, August 2008 is virtually identical to February 2008, with no party’s results differing by even a full percentage point from 7 months ago and overall volatility between those two months at a shockingly low 1.5%. Of course we are not back in February–a lot has happened since then–but the long-term stability is striking.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Though the shifts mean that this month is not as propitious for the current coalition as last month, it is still near its overall high point in the post-election period…
UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

…a second graph shows that the gains have been mostly for Smer and show a slight declining trend for the both the “Slovak national” and “right” parties (their current recovery takes them back only to a point that would have been considered low for much of 2007 and 2008.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As for parliament, the August figures again correspond with the likely “real world” consideration that were elections held today Smer would require one (and only one) coalition partner.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

We will need to wait for figures from FOCUS or MVK to make a better assessment of whether UVVM’s trends show echoes elsewhere or whether July was an anomaly, though given the erratic change, I bet on the anomaly.

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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