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Elected Affinities in the Cloud

The first blog I ever read on a regular basis was BldgBlog and I still read every word, so when it posted a word cloud of the upcoming BldgBlog book made on wordle.net , I felt obliged to try it with my own book. The results are gratifying:

Elected Affinities

Not only does it look a bit like Slovakia and/or the Czech Republic, but it really does contain all the ideas I cared about when I was writing it (and care about still).  And it helps me think about the idea of machine-based content analysis.  While this counting words does not say much about what I think, it does accurately capture what I am thinking about.  (See here for other ways to determine what I am thinking about; see below for wordles with different font and color schemes).

Elected AffinitiesElected Affinities

Audacity of Hoax Update II: Riffing on Entropa

Riffing on Entropa

Springtime for Dubcek–whose author, Scott Brown, does nice work on Slovak and Czech political cartoons–offers a nice roundup of Entropa related images here.

A Fistful of Euros–which does extraordinary work on European economies–offers another summary and links here.  And if that weren’t enough, there’s a link to its entry on European stereotype jokes here (some of them particularly stereotypical).

Obama in SME

Obama in Sme

After months in Slovakia hearing reasons why Americans would not vote for Barack Obama for President (including some from Americans) the question is how President Barack Obama will relate to Slovakia. On Monday I received a series of excellent questions from SME.  Since space considerations dictated the publication of responses to only the most immediately interesting–see  http://www.sme.sk/c/4270545/bratislava-nebude-obamovo-mesto.html (I am still waiting for the day when articles in Slovakia’s newspapers regularly exceed the 500-word mark, something that should be possible in the internet era)– and since I would hate to let my 10 minutes of top-of-the-head responses go unpublished, I post below both the questions and my answers.

Why is America and American president important for Slovakia? Which American presidents can we consider as very important for Slovakia and Slovak nation?

As the world’s largest economy and largest military the United States has an almost unavoidable efect on every country.  It is unlikely that the new administration will have much practical significance for most citizens of Slovakia, but in symbolic terms this inauguration is one of the most important in the past century, and the excitement among Americans—particularly the college-age students I teach—is unprecedented in my lifetime.  Among those American presidents who have had a deep influence on Slovakia’s development it is difficult to name any except Wilson, who aided the creation of Czechoslovakia, and Roosevelt who pursued a successful course in the Second World War.  Some might cite Reagan, but scholarship suggests that his effect on the collapse of the Soviet Union was marginal at best—a matter of timing rather than outcome.

Let’s look back to the history of Slovak-American relations – how do you see its development from 1993 independent Slovakia until now? What were the turning points?

The turning points in US-Slovakia relations are really the same as the turning points in Slovakia’s own politics.  Relationships between the Clinton administration and the successive Meciar governments cooled very quickly and remained quite cold during the 1990’s, though I never got the sense of any animosity toward Slovakia itself.  The defeat of the HZDS government in 1998 improved relations, both because the new government seemed more firmly committeed to democracy and stability in the region which helped aussuage the long-term concerns of the State Department.  The new government then ingratiated itself further through active cooperation with the Bush administration‘s foreign policy goals, even to the extent of supporting the war in Iraq. Under Fico the government has pulled back from this active cooperation and has offered some sharp criticisms, but it is not clear to me whether this has translated into a relationship that is more conflictual at the operational level, and it is notable that the US has moved ahead with the process of reducing or eliminating visa requrements.

May we expect Obama’s visit to Slovakia or Europe in the next years? When and why?

Unfortunately, I would not expect a visit.  I suspect that Obama’s main goals in the first few years will be domestic and that when he does travel abroad he will work on improving relations with countries where the Bush Administration’s policies did the most damage.  Slovakia is far down that (rather long) list.  I’m afraid, too, that the prominence of the Bush-Putin summit in the relatively recent past will move Slovakia further down the list.  Unless there are compelling reasons, countries that win one of these big events tend to move to the bottom of the list and cycle back to the top very slowly

Don’t you think European countries and leaders are expecting too much from Obama in sense of  „monumental change“ in mutual relations and US foreign policy?

I think almost everybody (except maybe Sarah Palin) is expecting too much from Obama.  I think his policy will certainly differ from that of the Bush Administration, but that administration’s policy stood near the extreme of unilaterialism.  Obama will not transform American diplomacy, and he will not radically reshape relationships with adversaries or allies, but he will bring it back toward the norm under Bill Clinton (and this is no surprise given that Hillary Clinton will be the Secretary of State).  The US under Obama promises to be a country that will make strong efforts at multilaterialism but that will still act unilaterally if it feels that its interests will be otherwise threatened. 

Our last government presented itself more in the light of euro-atlantic cooperation, current government is more ambiguous.  May this play a role in mutual relations in sense of change of American position towards Slovakia after Obama is inaugurated?

I will be interested to see whether the Fico government changes its relationship once the United States has a government closer to the economic left and more prone toward multilateralism.  My sense is that foreign policy stances and foreign policy rhetoric in Slovakia have been driven largely by domestic political considerations.  I do not know whether the relatively more left-of-center positions of the Obama presidency will change those considerations and shift the positions or rhetoric of the Fico government.

The Audacity of Hoax

EntropaDavid Cerny’s exhibition catalog for “Entropa” is the only thing connected to the EU that has ever caused me to laugh out loud.

There is such remarkable cleverness here that I want to think about it out loud as well, but it is hard to do it without drifting into pretentious art criticism.  So I will be try to brief.

At face value Cerny’s proposal for the artwork claims to want to force Europeans to confront the offensive stereotypes they have about those from other member states and calls for “self-reflection” and “critical thinking”?  In other words, stereotypes are a joke.

But since the artwork seems to reinforce those stereotypes (ask Bulgarians about Turkish toilets), the artist claims (obliquely in the artwork’s catalog and explicitly in his apology) to want Europeans to ask whether they can tolerate the stereotypes that other Europeans have about their own respective countries, since the “capacity to perceive oneself as well as the outside world with a sense of irony are the hallmarks of European thinking.”  In other words, maybe the real joke is that people don’t get the joke.

This will keep people talking for a week or so, and an artist whose goal was to get people thinking about their stereotypes and their reaction to being stereotyped could be marginally satisfied at having provoked a discussion (something that does not seem to have happened with any previous rotating-EU-presidency art installation).  But while I don’t doubt that Cerny was aware of the possibility (and might even be happy with the result), I rather doubt that this was his goal.  If I were to guess the main “artist’s question” that was going through his hard when he made this, I would guess this one:

Can I get away with this?

Amid all of the (not uninteresting) arguments about stereotypes, offense and irony obscure the most remarkable thing about this work: that it is there at all.  He has succeeded in placing an artwork that many find deeply offensive into the middle of an EU building, and forcing Czech Republic to start its EU presidency with an apology.  Mission accomplished.

Without trying to pursue analysis for which I am not trained, the main point for me is the weakness of official power.  The point is that Cerny managed to get this past everybody, managed to invent artists from 26 other countries without anybody noticing, managed to insert the potentially offensive bits in full public view (the Bulgarian toilet is part of the catalog, couched in artspeak–” intentionally primitive and vulgar, faecally pubertal”) and–shielded by the debate (which he framed himself) over stereotype against “sense of humor” (and who wants to be accused of lacking one of those)–he may well manage to keep the thing hanging in Brussels for the next six months.  That is some remarkable art.

Pink TankI may see this only because this is what I saw in the two other Cerny pieces that I encountered in public in the last two decades.  In spring of 1991 when I was teaching in Plzen I got a call from a friend to tell me to come to Prague and see “this amazing pink tank.”

HorseIn 2000, I was cutting through the Lucerna pasaz in Prague when I came upon Cerny’s “Horse” and nearly fell down laughing.  Again, the amazing thing was that he had punctured–actually obliterated–a core national myth within a few hundred feet of the real statue (see http://www.ce-review.org/99/19/pinkava19.html and Cerny’s own webpage: http://www.davidcerny.cz/EN/vaclav.html, especially his commentary).

To overthink this for a moment (because the real point is that it is really funny), I think Cerny’s art is funny to me because it says that the powers that be are not as powerful as they think.  I’m sold on the theory (thanks to Mark Lutz) that one of the reasons we laugh is that we are relieved to find out things we were afraid of are actually not that fearsome.  If Cerny could manage to paint a tank pink or mock a national hero, then maybe there were a lot of things that the rest of us could get away with.  So in this sense Cerny’s exhibits follow in the tradition of resistance through humor from the Good Soldier Svejk to the Theater of Jara Cimrman and the staged actions of the Committee for a Merrier Present (Spolecnost za veselejsi soucasnost), except that Cerny’s work came after the fall of Communism.  (Havel’s Power of the Powerless suggests something like this, suggests that western governments have their own kind of anonymous bureaucracy; Terry Gilliam’s Brazil makes the same point).  The fact that such guerilla art was still funny said something about our continued fear of the powers that be–from the continued influence of Russia (and those too afraid to fight it) connected to the Pink Tank, to the turn toward national reverence questioned by “Horse.”  Now the target is the European Union and for better or worse, the joke is still funny.

Three final last things that I can’t resist mentioning:

First, Cerny’s “apology” is itself a work of art, a beautifully designed document designed to admit just enough to keep the conversation going.  It is delightfully multilayered including the final sentence:”the piece thus also lampoons the socially activist art that balances on  the verge between would-be controversial attacks on national character and undisturbing decoration of an official space.”  It is yet another beautiful irony that the presumed goal of the apology–keeping the artwork hanging–makes it yet another example of the kind of art that Entropa is supposed to be criticizing.

Second, it is amusing to me that a piece of art allegedly about national stereotypes plays directly to my own stereotypes.  When I think about what I love most about Czechs, I think about their penchant for subversive humor.  This is itself a stereotype, I think.  There’s no reason that Czechs are any more likely to do this kind of thing than those of any other national group.  At the same time Czechs do seem more likely to embrace this kind of humor as part of their national heritage than do other European countries.  In that sense, Cerny’s Entropa itself is just as much an example of stereotype as the alleged pieces in his artwork.

Finally, Cerny’s exhibition catalog really repays careful reading, ranging from parody of artspeak to gems worthy of Douglas Adams.

  • The Hungary entry: “National stereotypes? For Brussels it is the Atomium, for Hungary the spicy Csabai sausage and ripe melons. Stereotypes in contemporary art? A busty Hungarian artist who smokes and uses flthy language.”
  • The Netherlands entry: “If only the Netherlands were in Hell! At least it is warm and generally dry there. I would like to survive; I’d like at least something from this country to survive. Salt water will noiselessly inundate felds, towns and villages. Fish will swim through our squares and seaweed will cling to our towers. Perhaps a few lucky individuals will be rescued in small boats.”
  • The Czech entry includes “A constant stream of brilliant Václav Klaus quotes. Words of wisdom that deserve to be etched in stone” but which must settle for being flashed on an LED.
  • The Slovenian entry (with shades of Arthur Dent): “I have chosen a text by the official Slovenian national tourism agency as a departure point for examination of our national identity. According to this text, the first tourists appeared in Slovenia back in 1213 and left a message documenting their visit in one of the caves in the Postojna complex. The discovery that we ourselves are unquestionably the descendants of these tourists is telling…”

There are also lovely gems snuck into the artists’ biographies including:

  • Sirje Sukmit (Estonia), Selected Performances, “Happy Birthday,” PC Department Store, Talinn Estonia
  • Boris Spernoga, (Slovakia), “Vernisaz,” Artforum Kozia, Bratislava (funny to me alone, because this is across the street from our apartment in Bratislava).
  • Khalid Asadi (UK) “The Beer Mat Show,” Alicante and (my favorite) “DO NOT REMOVE,” Atkinson Gallery, Southport

December 2008: Final Poll Comparisons

The always unpredictable MVK has come in with new numbers for mid-December and so it is briefly worth revisiting the graphs.  The most interesting news from this survey, however, are the results for small parties that I do not cover here and will try to address in the next post.

As we knew from the other polls, the big November drop for Smer was more likely a sampling artifact rather than a genuine drop.  This month Smer returns to 39% where it usually polls with MVK.  This is lower than averages for other pollsters for 2008–2 points lower than the FOCUS average of 41 and 6 points lower than the UVVM average of 45% for the year.  One reason for that may be MVK’s inclusion of a larger number of smaller parties on its questionaire and the resulting loss 2-4% of Smer support to those who might otherwise pick Smer but who, when presented with an option such as “Green Party,” opt for that one.  As UVVM and FOCUS results suggest, almost nobody in Slovakia actively mentions the Green Party when asked an open question, but when given the option, a few percent move in that direction which, coupled with lower numbers for Smer on such polls, suggests a limited softness in the party’s support (which is no surprise anyway).

Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent polling results for SDKU show strong agreement and again suggest that November’s MVK poll had some sampling problems.  All December polls show SDKU between 11% and 12%.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

December results for SNS produced an unexpectedly wide range of results, especially for a party that had produced near consensus in previous month.  MVK results suggest that this was a sampling issue, with results that bisect the FOCUS low and the UVVM high and keep the party’s average almost unchanged from the previous month.  Ethnic controversy, by this standard, does not seem to be a major electoral boost for the party.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for MK shows much the same, with an extremely narrow distribution at 8%.  This is low for a party with a demographic base of over 10% and for one facing the sort of political challenges that usually rally ethnic populations ’round the party.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for HZDS showsthe continuing slow slide.  The party is at near record low levels in 2 of  3 major surveys and at its second lowest overall average in its history.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows a rise in December and MVK exactly bisects the two other polls, as it often does.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows now real change, but MVK numbers for Decembers show a slight drop from their periodic high in November.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SF shows suggest caution about notions of an SF boomlet found by FOCUS.  I cannot find SF numbers for the November but the party’s numbers have not changed measurably from the most recent poll number I have for September.  This, combined with unchanged numbers from UVVM offer reasons for skepticism.  It may be, however, that what might otherwise have been an SF rise in December was affected negatively by the inclusion of yet another new party–Sloboda a solidarita–designed to appeal to the same demographic.  But about SAS more in the next post.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Chickens, roosting

I was intrigued to see stories about a recent Fico appearance, particularly one in HNOnline entitled, “Fico: There is an artificially created impression that every politician is a thief.”

Fico: They have artificially created the impression that every politician is a thief

How did that impression get created?  I have a partial theory:

As they stole

The points Fico raises in the article are not at all inappropriate:  Politics is hard work and the “perks” of politics in many cases only amount to an amelioration of difficult working conditions (being a good politician–as Fico is–is probably easier than working in a mine, but the hours are long and the demands and stresses are extremely high).  As a political figure who does not appear to be using the office for personal financial gain, Fico must be particularly incensed.  Yet he did not shy away from such attacks while he was attempting to gain power and he must bear some of the responsibility for his own difficult circumstances.

The broader issue here is the question of corruption in the electoral politics of postcommunist countries (and elsewhere as well).  When corruption levels are high (or are perceived as high), corruption becomes an issue in itself and becomes for ambitious politicians to gain support (especially ambitious politicians who have not engaged in obvious corruption themselves).  This is often a pyrrhic victory, however, since success puts those same leaders in the sights of their own weapons: even if they stay clean, their associates may succumb to the temptation, and even if they do not, it is often difficult to persuade voters that the new boss is any different from the old boss, especially when they ride around in the same dark, powerful sedans.  And it is not suprising that Fico, even at the top of his electoral game, feels pressure from precisely the sense of cynicism toward elected officials that he participated in creating, the same sense that allegedly produced somebody to amend the above-mentioned Fico billboard to read “…and so they will also steal under me”

For more on the famous (in Slovakia) Fico advertisement, see:

For more on the dynamics of anti-corruption campaining, see:

December 2008: Poll Averages and Comparisons

Overall Monthly Report:
Record highs for Smer and disagreements elsewhere

For the first time I can remember we have both FOCUS and UVVM numbers by mid-month (FOCUS getting there first this month) and so we can do a quick analysis already.  If time allows over the holiday season, I may try to do a few more year-on-year comparisons.

This graph averaging the last 24 months of polling results from multiple sources shows a number for Smer that is higher than any previous average.  Although the party is not at is record high for either UVVM or FOCUS, this is the first time it has been at a near-record high for both in the same month.  SDKU is at a correspondingly record low, though since these parties do not share the same voter pool and any correspondence is likely a coincidence.  (Unlike Smer, furthermore, SDKU is not seeing numbers that are unprecedented for the party: what is here a record low would have been for the party a near record high between 2003 and 2006, though then the party was in the tougher position of bearing responsibility for government actions)

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These numbers do not give the party a majority of seats but they do bring it within 3 of a majority, again the highest numbers recorded for a poll average.  The opposition, by this calculation, would have a mere 46, less than 2/3 of Smer alone.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

It is worthwhile to note the degree to which these numbers reflect disagreement among pollsters, however.  In the first place, the “Smer-gap” has re-emerged.  Smer numbers for FOCUS have recently notched upward, but now so have its numbers for UVVM, so we are back at a 6 point difference which is smaller than before only in the sense that it must be measured against a higher baseline for Smer so that it accounts for a smaller overall percentage.
Multiple-poll+average+ for +Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For SDKU, however, the gap has now disappeared and both polls show the party at the exact same level, just above 11%, though not quite in need of the shift in axis that SNS suffered in last month’s poll (from the 10%-20% range to 5-15%).  Still, the news for SDKU is not good.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SDKU+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for SNS shows the return of divergence after long months of near-agreement. FOCUS shows a continuing slide while UVVM shows a sharp rise.  Is politicization of conflicts with Hungary working for SNS?  It depends on your pollster.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SNS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

For MK it does not depend on the pollster–we are back to agreement after a month of disagreement–but MK numbers have been so erratic (given its base) that it is hard to know what to think.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +MK+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

As with SNS, it was either a good month or a bad month for HZDS depending on your pollster.  The party’s numbers from FOCUS this month exceed its numbers from UVVM, something that has happened only 4 times in the 30 months since the previous election.  Regardless of relative position, the two are quite close suggesting that the party’s polling level lies around 8% at present, not good for a party that regularly commanded twice that level four years ago, but not in danger of extinction.  Long term trends show the party falling below 5% but not in the next year.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +HZDS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KDH shows the emergence of a gap that had, for a while, disappeared.  Through most of 2007 the party polled better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again, with a nearly 4 percentage point gap, one of the highest in percentage terms for any party.  Both, however, show a slight rise for the party from November to December.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KDH+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

This graph of recent results for KSS shows little change: the party usually polls better with FOCUS than with UVVM and it does so again.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +KSS+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

If all we had were FOCUS numbers, it would be easy to accuse this post of burying the lead: “SF nears threshold of electability.”  That may be true, especially as dissatisfaction with SDKU appears to grow, but here we find it’s only true of one poll:  The party scores 4.5% with FOCUS but remains mired at 1% with UVVM.  There is a story here but it is hard to know which way it is going.

Multiple-poll+average+ for +SF+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Other parties remain low.  The November bump for HZD has receded in December and ANO is at at near-record lows with both FOCUS and UVVM for the party’s lowest-ever result in poll averages (0.2%).  Its decline in the FOCUS poll may help to explain some of the rise for SF which is its alternative on the non-parliamentary “right.”  The category of “Other” party is also extremely low, suggesting that respondents do not spontaneously offer the Green Party, the Conservative Democrats or Liga-OLS.  Of course this depends on the nature of the questioning: MVK appears to include the Green Party on its list and regularly receives percentages of about 2% for that party.  The same might be true of KDS or Liga if their names were included.

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

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December 2008 UVVM: The High Plateau

UVVM Monthly Report

This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows Smer back up to a near majority in preferences and with a majority of parliamentary seats while the opposition fades back toward the 30% mark it reached in July and previously in January of 2007.  With the exception of Smer’s rise, however, these numbers are not reflected in this month’s FOCUS poll (which for the first time in my memory beat UVVM to the punch) and which I will discuss in the next post.  This month the FOCUS and UVVM data are at odds in many areas, with one of the highest levels of disagreement between the two (excluding Smer) in the past 18 months, but more on that later.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

This short-term graph of poll results for UVVM minus Smer shows a reversal in the positions of SDKU and SNS, suggesting that the polarization on Hungary-related issues may be working (FOCUS does not show quite the same trend, but again more on that later).  HZDS continues a minor slide with its second lowest score ever in a UVVM poll (though in FOCUS the party holds its own this month).

UVVM+poll+data+ for +all+parties+except+Smer+ for the most recent +4+months+ in Slovakia

Adding these up, the strong month for Smer and SNS minus a slight decline in HZDS gives the coalition a near-record high, just shy of 7 out 0f every 10 voters in Slovakia expressing a preference.  The mirror image non-coalition parties drop to 3 in 10.

UVVM+poll+data+ for +coalition+support for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

The same basic trends apply to blocs.  The rise for SNS counters the drop for HZDS for stability in the “Slovak National” bloc while the drop in SDKU hurts the “Right.”UVVM+poll+data+ for +party+'blocs'+ for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

And a few percentage points here or there makes a huge difference in the nature Slovakia’s potential future government: were these election results, Smer would need no other partners, a development that could significantly reshape the nature of Slovakia’s politics.UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +1+month+ in Slovakia

UVVM+poll+data+ for +estimated+party+seat+distribution for the most recent +24+months+ in Slovakia

As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg

And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).

<br />