Slovakia Election Update: First post-election polls suggest big win for the opposition.

The polls are closed and we have poll numbers, delayed a bit by  storm-related power outages.  There will be a shorter lag than usual between the exit polls and the election results and the isolated nature of the delay may mess up the percentages in the previous post (or not.)

FOCUS did a telephone survey today and MVK appears to have done a traditional in-person exit poll.  The results are below.

If these are correct, then the results are a clear victory for the current opposition, and would, indeed, allow a 4 party rather than a 5 party  government from the current opposition (though 5 parties would give a much bigger margin of error along with a much bigger set of headaches).

Even if these numbers follow the norm of 2 point average error and the beneficiary is in each case the current coalition, the current coalition would not come near a majority, unless  one of the Hungarian parties falls below the threshold (and even then it would be a narrow thing)

Of course these are still polls, however recent they may be.   The next step is estimation from the preliminary results.  We only have 4% of precincts in at present, and they do give Smer a commanding lead, but this is actually pretty much what we would expect from the way that election results come in in Slovakia and when I extrapolate the lines, they actually correspond fairly closely with the exit polls.  Twenty minutes more and we should know.

FOCUS Seats MVK Seats
Smer 29.7 51 28 49
SDKU 18.1 31 15.8 28
SaS 11.6 20 12.4 22
KDH 9.1 16 9.9 17
SNS 6.3 10 5.7 10
HZDS 4.3 0 4.7 0
MKP-SMK 6.3 11 5.7 11
Most-Hid 6.7 11 8.2 14
SDL 2.9 0 3.0 0

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