Yesterday I discussed my plan to undertake a relatively systematic analysis of Slovakia’s parties. I intend to get some additional insight by doing the analysis but preliminary look at the data suggest the following conclusions about where parties have been and where they are going. I hope that I will actually change some of these judgments in the process of analysis, so check back for the final conclusions–by late February.
In the meantime, here’s what I see in the current figures, enhanced by what I’ve learned elsewhere.
| Category | Party | Current position | Long term level | Medium term | Short term trend | What will shape numbers in the next few months? |
|
Dominant |
Smer |
40 ± 3 |
Gains from 2006 election |
Decline from early 2009 peak |
Flat |
Aggressivity of campaign and national focus may help in some circles and hurt in others. At risk of scandals but good at damage control. Economic stabilization should help a bit. |
|
Safe |
SDKU |
14 ± 3 |
Peaks and valleys but overall flat from 2009 election (party electoral performance usually better than polls) |
Decline from peak in early 2009 |
Poll differences significant but seems like decline. |
If Radicova is electoral leader and relatively untainted by scandal, may see some bounce at the expense of SaS (or may form electoral coalition). |
|
KDH |
10 ± 1 |
Flat until recently |
Slight increase with coming of Figel |
Slight decline from Figel peak but still higher than before |
Most stable of all parties in Slovakia. Figel may have slight positive effect. |
|
|
Near the line
|
SNS |
7 ± 2 |
Peaked in 2008 and fell back below pre-2006 election levels |
Erratic but with strong declining trend |
Return to decline in recent polls |
Election of Orban in Hungary will help but some voters may find Smer more palatable. |
|
HZDS |
6 ± 1 |
Steady decline since 2006 (actually since 1992) |
Recovered in mid-2009 from sharp fall |
Return to slight decline |
Opaque. Voters aging but loyal. Some inverse relationship with Smer and SNS. Will be close to the threshold–likely just above but hard to tell. |
|
|
MKP-SMK |
5 ± 3 |
Slow decline beginning after 2006 election (maybe slightly before) |
Decline prior to and (especially sharp after) emergence of Most-Hid |
Return to stability just above threshold |
Depends heavily on personality |
|
|
Most-Hid |
5 ± 3 (inverse to SMK) |
New party |
Not included in polls until 2009, beginning around 3% and growing rapidly |
Stable just above threshold |
||
|
SaS |
6 ± 4 (inverse to SDKU) |
New party |
Emerged at 3-5% and grew moderately after |
Mixed results make size of short term rise unclear: may be significant or slight |
Depends on decisions within SDKU and (unclear) effectivness of novel organizational strategies (worked well in Europarliament elections but untested in higher turnout contests) |
|
|
Hard to imagine
|
SF |
1 ± 1 |
Erratic but overall gradual decline from 2006 election |
Significant decline from peaks in winter 2008 and spring 2009. |
Slight further decline |
Hurt by rise of SaS and would be hurt more by elevation of Radicova in SDKU; not helped by merger with voter-less Liga and OK |
|
KSS |
2 ± 1 |
Erratic but overall gradual decline from 2006 election |
Erratic peaks and valleys |
Slight decline |
Seems flat. Has not gained dissatisfied Smer voters. |
|
|
SZ |
1 ± 1 |
Erratic |
Gradual decline from peaks in summer 2009 |
Slight decline |
Seemed to have a chance and now seems not. Might benefit should Smer begin to crumble but not in near term. |
|
|
HZD |
1 ± 1 |
Flat |
Decline from 2% levels in late 2008-early 2009 |
Flat or slight decline |
Merging with Smer, soon to disappear. |