UVVM Monthly Report
A brief encounter between my computer and a falling hat-rack has led to a long hiatus in postings, but finally I have the processing capacity to post recent results. Not a lot of change, but enough to justify comment:
This overall long-term graph of poll results for UVVM shows little change in relative party positions, but this is actually rather significant given a variety of other changes that have occurred in the meantime: KDH has not lost support despite the departure of 4 key deputies; SDKU has not lost support despite bitter internal struggles; and Smer has lost support for two months running despite a series of successes at the parliamentary and policy level. Of course the changes (or the expect-able changes that didn’t happen) are relatively small and so could be obscured here by polling noise and so the next several months should help us discern the effects.
Also notable here is the recovery of HZDS from its lows at the beginning of the year, but there remains a substantial gap between the party and the next level. Whereas for many years the fortunes of parties crossed one another creating a confusing ebb and flow, for six months there have been four clear tracks, clusters of parties with no movement from one to the other: 40% (Smer), 14% (SDKU, SNS), 9% (KDH, SMK, HZDS) and 1% (everybody else, most notably KSS, SF, HZD and ANO), as the following graph shows in more detail.
The changes of the last two months have not had much effect on overall coalition-opposition share, however, as the following two graphs indicate.
To the extent that ‘blocs’ mean anything (and this is not always clear), Smer’s small drop has its counterpart in the slight rise of the right and Slovak national blocs, but this is almost imperceptible on the big graph and the ewest results take us back almost precisely to Autumn 2007.
The result is in practice the same as before: Smer can take its pick of coalition partner (though for the first time in over a year, there is a 2 party coalition that does not have a majority (the in-any-case unlikely combination of Smer and KDH). It is notable, however, that the decline led Sme to report that “Smer plus SNS have a comfortable majority” which several months ago was so clear that it did not even need reporting.