First guess
For the last 2 elections I’ve been tracking results as they come in, every 10 minutes. Based on what we saw last time (and the time before) I have a very rough model for judging results and how they relate to exit polls. After 250 they are too rough to make much of a conclusion. By the time we get to about 1000 polling stations, it should be much better. Last time we reached 1000 around 1:30 after the election, about 20 minutes from now.
| Based on 2010 after 250 | After 250 | Consistent with exit polls? | |
| Smer | May be much too high | 53.52 | Yes. Final in the 40s |
| SDKU | May be very low | 4.83 | Yes. Final considerably higher |
| KDH | May be a bit high | 8.75 | Yes, Final somewhat higher |
| Most-Hid | May be very low | 4.46 | Yes, Final considerably higher |
| SNS | No clear pattern | 5.1 | No way to tell |
| SMK | May be very low | 3.64 | Consistent with either in or out |
| SaS | May be very low | 3.13 | Yes, Final somewhat higher |
| OLaNO | No clear pattern | 5.43 | No way to tell |
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you’ve just made the main headline on sme.sk with your exit poll model, congrats:)
http://volby.sme.sk/c/6294403/minuta-po-minute-ak-sa-exit-polly-mylia-ako-minule-smer-bude-mat-vacsinu.html
you are making the best slovak elections coverage and analysis (including all slovak medias)
I don’t agree. It is not important how many stations have results, but which stations they are. For example right now only 3 of 396 Bratislava stations are counted, similar for all major cities. And Bratislava is well-known for its right orientation, so this will bring Smer down.
But I don’t know why counting in big cities takes longer.
“I have a very rough model for judging results”
I only silently hope you are not fitting straight lines to those exponential curves (shown in your more recent posts) and using these to extrapolate :-D
No straight lines. Those are based on the results from the previous elections, as results come in…
True, but results tend to come in from similar kinds of polling stations in similar patterns. 2006 and 2010 were almost identical. We shall see, but this is my rough guess…