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Post Election Thoughts: National Endowment for Democracy

Before I get on to the big news, I must offer apologies for the delay in a variety of posting which I will try to do over the next few days. I had the good fortune this week of presenting my thoughts about the election outcome to a variety of audiences in the capital and to responding to some of the brightest thinkers on these questions, particularly Grigorij Meseznikov, president of the Institute for Public Affairs (www.ivo.sk). In fact our Wednesday roundtable at the National Endowment for Democracy was interrupted by the news of the HZDS-SNS-Smer coalition (just moments, unfortunately, after I gave moderate odds against it). For those who are interested, I attach Grisa’s incredibly thorough treatment of Slovakia’s politics (which he finished before a coalition formed) and my own response, annotated with yellow notes to help explain the more cryptic images and to put it the context of what we know now about the coalition. More on that coalition itself in a the next post, coming soon:

Grigorij Meseznikov,
Assessing Slovakia’s 2006 Parliamentary Elections: Domestic and Regional Implications, International Forum for Democratic Studies, National Endowment for Democracy, 28 June 2006.
Download meseznikov_presentation_zs_very_final.ppt

Kevin Deegan-Krause,
Realms of Uncertainty, Stability and Instability in Slovakia’s Politics: Comments on the Presentation of Grigorij Meseznikov,
International Forum for Democratic Studies, National Endowment for Democracy, 28 June 2006.
Download meseznikov_presentation_deegan_krause_revised_comments.ppt

Post-Game Show: HZDS

There are, perhaps, more important stories to tell, but none has a clearer narrative arc:

Meciar_trendline

Day After: Change and Continuity

A few final images before closing this morning.  Haulik in SME does a nice job of summarizing the shifts and expectations: http://evolby.sme.sk/clanok.asp?cl=2768740
One thing that he does not do, however, is to look at certain measures of underlying stability.  Along with many others, I have noted elsewhere that even though Slovakia exhibits considerable variability in electoral results (it has one of the highest average levels of volatility in the region)
there is actually a significant degree of continuity within electoral blocs.  Volatility for this election stands according to current figures at 32%, which is the second highest in Slovakia’s electoral history (thanks largely to the exclusion of KSS and ANO, the expansion of Smer and the swap between SNS and HZDS) but 6 percentage points lower than 2002. 

Volatility among parties of the current coalition was remarkably low, with KDH losing 1, SDKU picking up 3 and SMK unchanged.  The stability of vote share received by SDKU/KDH/ANO/SF is even more remarkable:  in 2002 the total for these parties (SF did not yet exist) was 31.4%; in 2006 it was 31.6%. SMK, too, received a share of votes virtually identical to that which it received in 2006.  The collapse of ANO (and the inability of SF to exceed the 5% threshold) is the main explanation, therefore, for the overall shfit in political fortunes away from the right. 

The major shifts came within other blocs.  The number of seats held by nationalist parties dropped by only one, from 36 to 35, but there was significant shift in the internal distribution from all 36 in the hands of HZDS in 2002 to 15 in that party’s hands in 2002 and an additional 20 in the hands of SNS.  This stability in seats was only possible, however, because of reconsolidation among nationalist parties that prevented a recurrance of 2002’s loss of nationalist votes to parties below the threshold.  (In 2002 Nationalists lost more than 10% of the total vote to parties that did not pass the 5% threshold).  The actual total of votes to explicitly nationalist parties dropped from 29.8% to 21.2% in 2006.

The left experienced a corresponding increase (though perhaps not a shift in the actual voters).  Its vote share rose from 22.9% in 2002 to 33.2% in 2006  and experienced a reallocation as well from a  2:1 split between Smer and KSS to the sole possession of Smer.  Because KSS failed to pass the 5% threshold, the left lost just under 3.9% of its vote total, but this did not differ dramatically from the 3.2% it lost in 2002 to SDA and SDL.

Finally, it is worth noting that although the final results differed substantially from opinion polls in a variety of ways (SDKU much higher, SNS, MKP and Smer slightly higher, HZDS and KSS lower), the overall bloc votes actually showed considerable consistency with recent polls.   For the left overall the result was exactly what polls predicted (but not in actual distribution among parties).  For the right the result was better than expected but only by about 2% while for the national parties, the result was about 2% worse.
Slovak_election_data_2006_revision10a_pa

Day After: Coalition Scenarios Revised

It’s 8 am Bratislava time and true to the promise of the Central Electoral Commission, all precincts are in.  Here is the new parliament:

Slovak_election_data_2006_revision10

There will be plenty of time in the next few days to discuss why this differed so significantly from what I supposed.  At present, I will focus briefly on what this portends.  First, the absence of KSS and SF greatly simplifies the set of coalition relationships, reducing the total number of possibilities from 256 to 64.

Coalition_permutations6

Of these, furthermore at least one is virtually unthinkable (SNS-SMK/MKP).  Many of the other "excluded relationships" involved SF or KSS, so other combinations are at least within the realm of possibility (though several parties have excluded the option of working with HZDS as long as Meciar remained at its head, and Meciar has made statements about his unwillingness to work with SNS chair Slota).

Of the 64 possible coalitions, 12 can be excluded because they contain SNS and SMK/MKP, 28 others do not muster a parliamentary majority, and 16 are larger than necessary for a majority.  (SME makes a muddle of this on its own page: http://evolby.sme.sk/c/2767865/Vysledky-parlamentnych-volieb-2006.html
This leaves 8 possible coalition combinations which, because I think in graphic terms, I array below.  Among the possibilities, the most talked about are the first four:

Coalition_permutations2_page_4


Coalition_permutations2_page_6


Coalition_permutations2_page_3


Coalition_permutations2_page_5

Four others are less likely but still possible:

  Coalition_permutations5a_page_2

Using the data from a previous assessment, it is possible to gauge the internal antipathy of various members, at least at the mass level.  This may mean nothing, however, at the elite level when it comes time to making a bargain to form a government.

Coalition # Seats Weak-
est Link
Avg.
Anti-
pathy
3 Party: Smer+Oppo
(HZDS/SNS)
85 -27 -16
2 Party: Smer+SDKU 81 -65 -65
3 Party: Smer+Mix
(KDH/SNS)
84 -69 -42
3 Party: Smer+Coal
(SMK/KDH)
84 -69 -49
3 Party: Smer+Mix
(HZDS/KDH)
79 -69 -54
4 Party: No Smer Mix
(HZDS/KDH/SNS/SDKU)
80 -83 -49
4 Party: No Smer Mix
(HZDS/KDH/SMK/SDKU)
80 -90 -45
3 Party: Smer+Mix (HZDS/SMK) 80 -90 -58

So now the fun begins.

Election Day: Return Trends 2

Trends have stabilized allowing a range of confidence for final results.  The chart below shows trendlines (solid) beginning almost from the beginning, and shorter trendlines (dotted) beginning from about 50% reporting.
Election_return_trendlines2

These results would suggest the following government possibilities:

HZDS 15
SNS 20
Smer 50
SMK 20
KDH 14
SDKU 31
ANO 0
HZD 0
KSS 0
SF 0
Coalitions  
Smer+ HZDS+ SNS 85
Smer+ KDH+ SMK 84
Smer+ SDKU 81
Smer+ SDKU+ KDH 81
Smer+ SDKU+ SMK 81
SDKU+ SMK+ KDH 65

This is not too different from what we’ve seen elsewhere but secures at least the mathematical possibility of Smer+KDH.  From the looks of it, bargaining will determine the coalition.  Fico has three distinct possibilities: HZDS/SNS, KDH/SMK or SDKU.  Since he has resolutely refused to suggest a coalition direction, it may come down to the best offer.

Election Day: Return Trends

Sme’s retransmission of the election numbers as they appear offers an interesting opportunity to collect and process potentially useless data.  I’ve been downloading the results at roughly 15-20 minute intervals and the numbers can fortunately be dropped immediately into Excel.  As might be expected, the differences in the type of party demographic and tendency of certain types of precincts to report early or late produces what may appear to be a linear relationship over time that could (in theory, if all else is equal) be used to predict final outcomes.  I do not necessarily believe that this is the case, but I present, for your entertainment, what that would look like:
Election_return_trendlines

What does this (meaninglessly) predict:
Smer: 28.5%
SDKU: 24%
SMK: 12.5%
SNS: 11%
KDH: 8%
HZDS: 6%
SF: 4.5%
KSS: 3%

‘Twould be an interesting world if that were the case…

Election Day: Coalition Scenarios

It is still too early to tell whether either the OMV numbers accurately reflect the outcome (STV has been using it as its baseline for TV coverage, even though commentator Darina Malova has been extremely adept at suggesting caution) and whether the surprising MVK exit poll results are any better (again, some of the results are surprising), but it is possible from this vantage at least to look at what might or might not be possible.  This is just "wheel-spinning" since we will need a better look at results, but I have a few minutes, so why not.

First, though, I am struck that my calculations show something very different from the way that Pravda has translated the Markiza/MVK numbers.  http://imgs.pravda.sk/sk_domace/A060617_P02_PRVAPROGNOZA_V2_V.JPG
I cannot be 100% certain that these are wrong, but I’ve reworked my own calculations several ways using Markiza/MVK numbers and I get something different:

                       Share       Seats
                                               Their #        My #
Smer         27.2%           45                48
SDKU        19.0%           32                34
SMK            11.8%            21                21
SNS             9.6%              18                17
HZDS          8.6%              17                15
KDH            8.6%              17                15
KSS               4.7%              0                    0
SF                    3.8%              0                    0

If true, my numbers suggest a significantly higher percentage to the two largest parties.  I am not sure how we arrived at such different numbers, but if my method is wrong, I would very much like to hear from somebody why.

In any case, I present below a number of possible seat distributions depending on polls (and, apparently, methods of calculation)

  OMV/STV Markiza/MVK Markiza/MVK Markiza/MVK + KSS (5.0) Markiza/MVK + KSS (5.2)
Parties
HZDS 18 17 15 14 14
SNS 20 18 17 16 16
Smer 46 45 48 46 45
SMK 17 21 21 20 20
KDH 16 17 15 14 14
SDKU 23 32 34 32 32
ANO 0 0 0 0 0
HZD 0 0 0 0 0
KSS 10 0 0 8 9
SF 0 0 0 0 0
Coalitions
Smer+ HZDS+ SNS 84 80 80 76 75
Smer+ KDH+ SMK 79 83 84 80 79
Smer+ SDKU 69 77 82 78 77
Smer+ SDKU+ KDH 85 77 82 78 77
Smer+ SDKU+ SMK 86 77 82 78 77
SDKU+ SMK+ KDH 56 70 70 66 66

Of main note here are several points:

  • Smer+HZDS+SNS is viable in every circumstance (unless KSS manages to act as a spoiler and gets slightly above the 5% line, thus getting 9 seats instead of the minimal 8)
  • Smer+KDH+SMK is viable in every circumstance, as are all other instances of Smer+2 of the three government parties
  • Smer+SDKU is viable according to MVK/Markiza (thanks to SDKU’s strong showing there) but not in OMV
  • SDKU+SMK+KDH is not viable in any circumstance though if both SF and KSS fail to get into parliament it may only have to "acquire" 6 votes from elsewhere.
  • Even should SF exceed the threshold (a separate set of scenarios not shown here), it would still give a right wing coalition only 74 or 75 seats under the MVK numbers and fewer under the OMV numbers.

Polling results have started to come in, though it’s going to be hard to make guesses until the share of votes counted gets high.  As some have noted, the returns will come in last in the cities and that might show a disadvantage for SDKU/SF until the final hours.  We shall see.

Election Day: Markiza’s Numbers

SME and Pravda have both published Markiza’s guess based on MVK numbers (the Markiza website’s Sprava page focuses instead on Siamese Twins in Los Angeles!).

Markiza Difference from average latest polls
Smer 27.2 -0.6
SDKU 19 +6.1
SNS 9.6 -0.3
HZDS 8.6 -3.0
SMK 11.8 +1.8
KDH 8.6 -0.7
KSS 4.7 -1.2
SF 3.8 -1.5
ANO 2 +0.4
HZD 1.3 -1.7

For Smer, KDH and SNS, this differs little from the previous month’s polling. For SDKU and SMK this result would represent a significant increase over polls (even given SDKU’s final-month increases). For HZDS this would represent a significant drop (and a particular humiliation were the party receive fewer voters than SNS). For KSS it would represent a smaller drop but a much
more significant one since it would put them below the 5% threshold.

I need to double check some calculations regarding the translation of seats into votes (Markiza’s appears to be wrong by several seats, but I need to confirm that) and will post parliament graphs and coalition possibilities when I’ve done the calculations.

Election Day: OMV Numbers

Polls have closed and Pravda is promising preliminary results in a few minutes, but all we’ve got for the moment is their republication of the OMV results based on an enormous (8,000 person) sample.  The results of that survey are not particularly surprising given what we’ve seen elsewhere (see below).  The interesting thing is how well this will correspond to actual results.  Even with the best, latest results possible, some other kinds of calculations may still be necessary.  That is really the point of this blog and the results of this election will provide us with a lot more data for understanding the differences between polls and results.  More on that soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Percent Change from last
  survey
SMER-SD 26.70 (1.60)
ĽS-HZDS 10.30 (0.80)
SMK 10.00 (0.60)
KDH 9.60 (0.20)
SNS 11.80 2.00
SDKÚ 13.60 1.50
SF 4.30 (0.70)
KSS 5.90 1.10
HZD 1.50 0.20
ANO 2.70 (0.10)

Party Preferences and Trends: All the Numbers

For those who did not receive it by email, I am posting here the full set of poll results in graphic form including results for individual parties and individual polling firms along with recent trendlines.  These include all available final polls (but we have no word yet from OMV, FOCUS or Median).  I’ll update and repost if new polls produce major differences, but that’s rather unlikely.

Download slovak_election_polls_final_week.pdf