UVVM Monthly Report: October 2008
Also available in Slovak, here
UVVM reverted to the mean this month, its poll numbers pulling back from extremes for most of the major parties and toward the results obtained by other pollsters. There are gains to be made from a comparative analysis of various polls, but as usual the major papers (http://spravy.pravda.sk/opozicne-strany-si-mierne-polepsili-dvg-/sk_domace.asp?c=A081015_151947_sk_domace_p04)
present these without a hint of analysis from ČTK which itself takes these numbers as givens rather than as a particular (and with regard to SMK, particularly troubling) survey.
Otherwise (and maybe this is why the papers do not bother to put more energy into it) there is not much to see here that is new:
Smer leads, but not as much as before. SDKU moves slightly upward into clearer (but far distant) second place while SNS sinks toward the other three major parties:
The movement of the mid-size parties is clearer here. Particularly troubling is the movement for SMK. A party which has by far the most stable overall electorate and the most stable historical voting patterns has the highest level of volatility in month-to-month poll numbers of any major party in UVVM surveys (see a more in-depth post here: http://www.pozorblog.com/#/p=110). (HZDS has also been rather volatile, and while it is possible that this party’s support is actually a bit more volatile, its major swings also seem to be more the result of survey networks than actual shifts in public opinion.)
Aggregated according to blocs, the shifts above mean a slightly closer gap between opposition and coalition, but no different than the overall average for the period.
Vote blocs, too, stay roughly the same.
And Smer is still likely to be able to build a coalition with a single party of its own choosing.
As always, the actual polling numbers are available online at Google Docs:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pdhlCClsiyAMi39bLFpY_Zg
And the most recent three months are below in tabular format (using “iframe” which may not work on all browsers).
<br />