We’re down to the final 1/3 of the vote count and it gets harder and harder for surprises to emerge. From this point onward in 2010 the following things happened:
- Smer dropped by a little over a point (extrapolate that from the present and you get Smer results of about 45%)
- SDKU rose by just under a point (extrapolate from that and discount a bit for its currently much smaller size and you get SDKU results of about 5.9%)
- Most-Hid rose by about a point (extrapolate and you get about 7.35%)
- KDH dropped by about a tenth of a point (extrapolate, 8.7%)
- SaS didn’t change much at all (extrapolate, 5.3%)
- SNS dropped slightly (extrapolate, 4.6%)
- SMK rose by half a point (extrapolate, 4.5%)
- OLano didn’t exist. (extrapolate using SaS patterns, 8.4%)
Take that and run it through the seat generator and you get something pretty striking:
- Smer: 84
- KDH: 16
- OLano: 15
- Most-Hid: 14
- SDKU: 11
- SaS: 10
Hard to talk much about a coalition when you’ve go that kind of majority. So KDH may be spared the decision about whether to go into coalition. And Slovakia will find out what happens when one party has a majority. Its last experience with a near-majority was not so pleasant, but times were different then (one can hope).
Kevin, thanks for all your work on the site tonight. Terrific job and much better at predicting the results than all of the exit polls on Slovak TV. Of the remaining votes to be counted most are in Kosice and Bratislava, so I’d expect a few more votes for SDKU-DS and perhaps SaS. But the colour of the govt and which parties will be in parliament is now pretty clear.