Archive for the ‘Pozorblog’ Category

Perishable Goods

There are new political parties everywhere. And they follow patterns. Tim Haughton and I have written about them here: Whither Eastern Europe_Political Party Systems_Deegan-Krause

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Slovakia’s Presidential Election: Wrapping it up

Clear victory for Kiska.  Not much else to say at the moment.  Good analysis on STV so I turn it over to them.  Tomorrow I’ll try to look at shifts in support between the two elections to give us a sense of what this means for coalition patterns.  As in the past, it seems to […]

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Slovakia’s Presidential Election: Kiska wins

Hard to see how Fico wins at this point: 59:41, with the lead increasing but at a declining rate. A friend of mine (who shall for the moment remain nameless) predicted 60:40 for Kiska.  Looks like she may be right.  I’d guess 60.5 to 39.5. Turnout looks like maybe 52?  Slightly lower than 2009 second […]

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Slovakia’s Presidential Election: First results coming in

And with .01% of the vote in… Kiska slightly ahead. 51:49.  With 10% of the precincts in, a big jump for Kiska… 57:43.  Given the way Fico’s vote changes over time, that’s a bad sign.  Really very bad. If this trend keeps up through 25% of precincts, it’s pretty clear.    

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Slovakia’s Presidential Election Second Round: Awaiting Results

Polls are just closing now and we shall see what we shall see. The only thing to pay attention to at the earliest moments is that according to the minute-by-minute returns from the first round (thanks to Sme.sk–somebody has been paying attention to details–http://www.sme.sk/c/7137934/kto-su-volici-fica-kisku-a-prochazku-volebne-grafy.html–Fico’s results at the first five minute point slightly exceeded his final […]

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Slovakia Presidential Elections: Morning-After Thoughts on Results

A few quick supplementary thoughts: What can we expect in the second round?  I’ll try to avoid speculating on the nature of the campaigning except to say that I suspect all gloves are off.  What I am more interested in is the nature of the shifts in voters between this round and the next.  If […]

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Slovakia Presidential Election: Results

I don’t have a live stream from Slovak channels where I am so I’m obviously saying what others have said already: Fico and Kiska.   What I didn’t expect was the general strength of the others and the general weakness of Fico.  It’s going to be a very interesting two weeks because Kiska and Fico […]

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Slovakia Presidential Election: The Fico Connundrum

Last week Jon Stewart got in trouble for mocking media commentators who might say things like “Slovakia’s president is a cow”.  This week, we have the news that its next president might be the current prime minister.  For those who know Slovakia’s constitutional system, this is perhaps even /less/ likely: why would why a politician at […]

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Czech Election Update: Statistical Roundup

A few thoughts continuing from yesterday: First, in a post-election debate (the first I’ve ever seen and kudos to CTV for arranging it (it helps that polls close at 2 in the afternoon), the moderator asked various parties for their opinions about many things including coalition partners.  Here’s a list of the relevant answers: Usvit: […]

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Czech Election Update: Not much left to the imagination

Almost all the votes are in and it’s a mess: Party Share Seats Share of seats CSSD 20.69 52 26.00% ANO 18.7 48 24.00% KSCM 15.1 34 17.00% TOP 11.63 25 12.50% ODS 7.59 15 7.50% KDU-CSL 6.81 14 7.00% Usvit 6.98 12 6.00% Greens 3.1 0 0.00% Pirates 2.64 0 0.00% SSO 2.42 0 […]

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