Archive for March, 2012

Slovakia’s Electoral Politics, an Interview with SME

Just a note to post the interview that recently appeared in SME (with thanks to Tomas Galas for good questions and good translation). The original interview is here (but limited to PIANO users): http://komentare.sme.sk/c/6311867/o-zaujmoch-smeru-sa-dozvieme-az-v-najblizsich-rokoch.html I’ve inserted the text of the full English translation below in text and along with quite a few questions that did not […]

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2012 Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia: The Building Blocs of Success

Another year, another election.  This time a joint work by Tim Haughton and Kevin Deegan-Krause reviewing Slovakia’s most recent election and what it means (even for people who can’t find Slovakia on a map). Tim Haughton (not pictured here) is Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Fellow, Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies & Senior […]

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The results so far (close to definitive)

I am going to bed as Slovakia is waking up.  The result tonight is a big win for Smer, bigger than expected.  Smer did what it set out to do in this election: avoid mistakes, avoid scaring people, letting the other side self destruct.  Party Votes Seats Smer 44.85 84 KDH 8.76 16 OL 8.46 […]

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Minor details

As I wait until the final results, a few tidbits: 99% gets 1.6% HZDS which once dreamt of 99% gets less than 0.99% +1 Vote, is on track to get 699+1 Vote

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Not too much left to say…

We’re down to the final 1/3 of the vote count and it gets harder and harder for surprises to emerge.  From this point onward in 2010 the following things happened: Smer dropped by a little over a point (extrapolate that from the present and you get Smer results of about 45%) SDKU rose by just […]

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Voting in Slovakia

Martin Votruba brings to our attention the Reuters version of Slovakia’s election: At least it doesn’t contain a horse-drawn cart…

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Sceniarios, but not much difference

I like to run various scenarios, just in case.  Using the most recent FOCUS numbers, I offer a few different possibilities, though as the numbers come in, those are looking less and less likely.  The upshot:  if the polling numbers are right, the only way there is not a significant majority in the hands of […]

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Smer, SNS and Hungarians trending

At this point I’d put more faith in the recent FOCUS adjustment (http://volby.sme.sk/c/6294451/spresnena-prognoza-focusu-dava-smeru-sd-82-mandatov.html) than my own, which are not based on regional patterns (that’s a project for some future effort–I don’t know what the FOCUS numbers are based on but they look OK), but for those who are interested here’s the trending for the parties […]

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Smer then and now

Keeping up with the Smer track, the party is trending almost exactly as it did in 2010 with one exception: it is 10% above its trending last year.  It does of course make a difference about which polling places return results when, but certain kinds of polling places tend to return results at particular times […]

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Better guesses: after 1000 polling stations

Usually once we get to 1000 polling stations, we can make a better guess.  Based on the experience of 2010 (and 2006), I’ve got a rough model of how it changes over time.  Here is that model applied to what we have in now.  I’m off to calculate the seat consequences of that, but it […]

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