Archive for June, 2006

Post Election Thoughts: National Endowment for Democracy

Before I get on to the big news, I must offer apologies for the delay in a variety of posting which I will try to do over the next few days. I had the good fortune this week of presenting my thoughts about the election outcome to a variety of audiences in the capital and […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Post-Game Show: HZDS

There are, perhaps, more important stories to tell, but none has a clearer narrative arc:

Read the rest of this entry »

Day After: Change and Continuity

A few final images before closing this morning.  Haulik in SME does a nice job of summarizing the shifts and expectations: http://evolby.sme.sk/clanok.asp?cl=2768740One thing that he does not do, however, is to look at certain measures of underlying stability.  Along with many others, I have noted elsewhere that even though Slovakia exhibits considerable variability in electoral […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Day After: Coalition Scenarios Revised

It’s 8 am Bratislava time and true to the promise of the Central Electoral Commission, all precincts are in.  Here is the new parliament: There will be plenty of time in the next few days to discuss why this differed so significantly from what I supposed.  At present, I will focus briefly on what this […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: Return Trends 2

Trends have stabilized allowing a range of confidence for final results.  The chart below shows trendlines (solid) beginning almost from the beginning, and shorter trendlines (dotted) beginning from about 50% reporting. These results would suggest the following government possibilities: HZDS 15 SNS 20 Smer 50 SMK 20 KDH 14 SDKU 31 ANO 0 HZD 0 […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: Return Trends

Sme’s retransmission of the election numbers as they appear offers an interesting opportunity to collect and process potentially useless data.  I’ve been downloading the results at roughly 15-20 minute intervals and the numbers can fortunately be dropped immediately into Excel.  As might be expected, the differences in the type of party demographic and tendency of […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: Coalition Scenarios

It is still too early to tell whether either the OMV numbers accurately reflect the outcome (STV has been using it as its baseline for TV coverage, even though commentator Darina Malova has been extremely adept at suggesting caution) and whether the surprising MVK exit poll results are any better (again, some of the results […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: Markiza’s Numbers

SME and Pravda have both published Markiza’s guess based on MVK numbers (the Markiza website’s Sprava page focuses instead on Siamese Twins in Los Angeles!). Markiza Difference from average latest polls Smer 27.2 -0.6 SDKU 19 +6.1 SNS 9.6 -0.3 HZDS 8.6 -3.0 SMK 11.8 +1.8 KDH 8.6 -0.7 KSS 4.7 -1.2 SF 3.8 -1.5 […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: OMV Numbers

Polls have closed and Pravda is promising preliminary results in a few minutes, but all we’ve got for the moment is their republication of the OMV results based on an enormous (8,000 person) sample.  The results of that survey are not particularly surprising given what we’ve seen elsewhere (see below).  The interesting thing is how […]

Read the rest of this entry »

Party Preferences and Trends: All the Numbers

For those who did not receive it by email, I am posting here the full set of poll results in graphic form including results for individual parties and individual polling firms along with recent trendlines.  These include all available final polls (but we have no word yet from OMV, FOCUS or Median).  I’ll update and […]

Read the rest of this entry »